mbasic wrote: ↑Wed Sep 21, 2022 8:16 am
re the bolded part above, and 'bluffing'.
I mean, don't we all accept that UKR has already blown some shit up INSIDE Russia ....like in Russia-Russia? Not fake-russia?
So funny dichotomy/irony that Russia has to deny those were successful UKR attacks (i.e. smoking accidents at ammo warehouse)
to look not-incompotent at defending their homeland/interior .....while at the same time NOT retaliating with just utter shock-and-awe-taking-the-gloves-off for attacks on their homeland.....because they are doing everything they can now and loosing. Seemed like that would have qualified as the excuse to use a nuke based on "attacks on Russian land" doctrine.
Agreed, throughout the year they've practiced some huge cognitive dissonance concerning stuff getting blown up/ destroyed in 'Russia Russia'.
I doubt the UAF would go beyond Belgorod etc as to those of us with a western 'mindset' that would constitute an actual attack on sovereign territory and would galvanise a lot of folk to understandably take up arms. It's hard to fathom the 'Muscovite mindset' at times though and how they interpret reality.
Hopefully attempts to mobilise their population will increasingly foment revolution now that they want to throw urban Russians into the grinder and not those from the 'stans/ East.
Still referring to it as a 'special operation' in that clip
I'd probably be moaning at the thought of spending a period in the Ukrainian/ Russian winter without proper extreme cold weather clothing, equipment and food too to be fair.
I have Russian friends and acquaintances, but TBH with this going on, I worry with a surge trying to get out, some dudes posing as conscientious objectors will slip through to the EU to launch terror attacks.
IMO, at least one more big military loss is needed for any hope of mass protests in Russia. The first loss, the Kharkiv counter offensive, has triggered this mobilization and raised the heat palpably in Russia. The mobilization and fresh nuclear threats from Putin are him playing some of his last cards in an attempt to stop the conflict. His hope is that Russia conducts their refakerendums, declares the currently occupied areas Russia with the hope that it will prevent Ukrainian counterattacks, and use mobilization as a way to show they are not backing down so a negotiation is the way to go. If this fails, and I think it will, the domestic situation in Russia might reach a boiling point. Perhaps Putin will be declared "sick" and new officials will take charge "temporarily" and ease tensions out of "good will" in the Great Leader's absence.
quikky wrote: ↑Fri Sep 23, 2022 9:59 am
IMO, at least one more big military loss is needed for any hope of mass protests in Russia. The first loss, the Kharkiv counter offensive, has triggered this mobilization and raised the heat palpably in Russia. The mobilization and fresh nuclear threats from Putin are him playing some of his last cards in an attempt to stop the conflict. His hope is that Russia conducts their refakerendums, declares the currently occupied areas Russia with the hope that it will prevent Ukrainian counterattacks, and use mobilization as a way to show they are not backing down so a negotiation is the way to go. If this fails, and I think it will, the domestic situation in Russia might reach a boiling point. Perhaps Putin will be declared "sick" and new officials will take charge "temporarily" and ease tensions out of "good will" in the Great Leader's absence.
The partial mobilisation has provoked those most likely to protest to get out. Apparently the order to keep 18-35 yr olds from leaving is not being enforced at the border.
We must defend Motherland from super Nazis, especially Azov. This is why we are releasing Azov officers, including their commander, in a ratio of over 150 to 1, for Great Leader's friend Viktor Medvedchuk. High five!
If a Russian protests the war, I mean 'special operation', they can receive a 15-year prison sentence.
If a Russian dodges the draft, it is a 3-year prison sentence.
aurelius wrote: ↑Fri Sep 23, 2022 3:31 pm
If a Russian protests the war, I mean 'special operation', they can receive a 15-year prison sentence.
If a Russian dodges the draft, it is a 3-year prison sentence.
In Russia draft dodges you!
Russia needs that mobilized 300,000 men in order to bolster the internal security forces that will be required to compel mobilization.
quikky wrote: ↑Fri Sep 23, 2022 9:59 am
IMO, at least one more big military loss is needed for any hope of mass protests in Russia. The first loss, the Kharkiv counter offensive, has triggered this mobilization and raised the heat palpably in Russia. The mobilization and fresh nuclear threats from Putin are him playing some of his last cards in an attempt to stop the conflict. His hope is that Russia conducts their refakerendums, declares the currently occupied areas Russia with the hope that it will prevent Ukrainian counterattacks, and use mobilization as a way to show they are not backing down so a negotiation is the way to go. If this fails, and I think it will, the domestic situation in Russia might reach a boiling point. Perhaps Putin will be declared "sick" and new officials will take charge "temporarily" and ease tensions out of "good will" in the Great Leader's absence.
seems like the Mobilisationing is having the effect of the "one more big military loss" your spoke of in the above ....
- Stories of a draftee publicly killing/shooting the head draft-officer at one of the draft HQs
(rather than be drafted, and therefore killed by the Ukrainese in the near future no doubt)
- Mass protests in Dagestan
- Another funny one: a Russian mother saying she would rather see her son get drafted and go to the front and be wounded .... that is a better outcome than him dying staying in his hometown from alcoholism. (this last one seems like a parody from a Borat sequel or something).
yeah, the gas pipeline thing is making my head spin.
doesn't that gas go from russia to europe .... in exchange for money?
russia blew up their own revenue stream? ... in order to energy-strangle europe right before winter?
Since this is a Russian themed thread I'll quote Georgy Zhukov "there is no smoke without fire"
I had the same thought that it sounds dumb to cut off your own revenue stream and I don't think Putin is stupid enough to do this when they can and have already shut off the gas supply they control. I could see a 3rd party doing it that would benefit from conflict between Russia and 'The West' though.
mbasic wrote: ↑Wed Sep 28, 2022 4:32 am
yeah, the gas pipeline thing is making my head spin.
doesn't that gas go from russia to europe .... in exchange for money?
russia blew up their own revenue stream? ... in order to energy-strangle europe right before winter?
No one from Europe's supposed to be buying Russian gas atm due to sanctions and what not (some think the Germans are doing it on the sly as rising energy costs are crippling their manufacturing industries).
The Chinese are still content to purchase Russian gas.
Yamal gas pipeline through Poland still exists, and Norway pipes gas to Denmark and Poland.
NS2 was built by a Dutch company (not Swiss).
The UK's PM is capping household energy costs for the next two years with a blank check from the Bank of England to purchase gas on the global market.
The Danish and Polish are adamant it's an act of sabotage, though by whom... ¯\_(ツ)_/¯
GlasgowJock wrote: ↑Wed Sep 28, 2022 5:50 am
The Danish and Polish are adamant it's an act of sabotage, though by whom... ¯\_(ツ)_/¯
There's some shit going around it was the USA ...
I've seen this as well. Less gas on the market (at face value) means the US can strangle us Brits (and others) as we import the bulk of our LNG from yous. I covered it a bit on the global recession thread. The £ and € are weakening still against the USD.
A fractured EU's resolve on the European war as winter approaches can't weaken if Gazprom now physically can't export gas.
