aurelius wrote: ↑Mon Dec 04, 2023 10:34 am
mikeylikey wrote: ↑Mon Dec 04, 2023 6:44 am
I get that. My point is that Hamas' operations were probably never very sophisticated to begin with. I would wager that at no time going all the way back to 10/7 could Hamas have produced a complete manifest of hostages.
And I think we may be thinking of Hamas all wrong. Your earlier assessment that Hamas is really just a gang maybe be spot on. More like gangs. So sure, Hamas has an international level organization but at the local level is might just be a bunch of gangs. That the international level organization aren't fully in control of.
To kind of make another terrible analogy to 9/11, it would seem Hamas put all of its efforts into this one attack similar to how Al Qaeda put all its efforts into 9/11. Both appear to have underestimated the response and/or overestimated their ability to withstand the response. I am honestly surprised at how easy this has been for Israel. I thought Hamas would turn this into an urban bloodbath where Israel was expending hundreds of lives to gain blocks. But so far Hamas's defense seems to be mostly firing ineffective rockets into Israel and hiding in tunnels.
The more time goes by the less I like the 9/11 analogies.
10/7 was a mostly conventional operation which succeeded for conventional reasons. Even ignoring the actionable intelligence Israel apparently had, 10/7 used attack vectors which at least generally would have been anticipated. Hamas was able to do the damage they did not by being especially clever but simply by bringing so many resources to bear.
My perception is that 9/11 was the result primarily of luck, incident to the use of a novel attack method that the US can be somewhat forgiven for not anticipating. A couple dozen men and something like $300k spent. This would not be a particularly heavy lift in my understanding of al Qaeda's resources and capabilities at that time.
In terms of impact, 9/11 was a paradigm shift for Americans. Israelis have lived with war and terrorism in their backyards for their whole lives, I'm not sure that 10/7 really changed how they fundamentally see the world.
I do think 9/11 and 10/7 had motivations which were at least similar, namely, "provoke a larger and more capable enemy into a self-destructive overreaction."