Let's go to war or not: Iran Edition

[GlasgowJock]

https://www.aljazeera.com/news/liveblog ... nniversary

prolly CIA operatives /s

Iranian backed Houthi attacks on international shipping/ Western capitalism was likely to draw the ire of someone when their proxies decided to up the ante recently.

Faced with sending maritime freight around the Cape? Hard nope.

[mbasic]

President dude died in a "plane crash".
https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/20 ... ane-crash/


I wish I had the internet skills to edit up a"welcome to heaven meme"....
...but with Prigozhin, a couple of Boeing employees, Epstien, etc. welcoming him.

[5hout]

President dude died in a "plane crash".
https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/20 ... ane-crash/


I wish I had the internet skills to edit up a"welcome to heaven meme"....
...but with Prigozhin, a couple of Boeing employees, Epstien, etc. welcoming him.

I can't tell if Mossad is getting sneakier or it's just further reasons to "never get in a helicopter again".

[mbasic]

President dude died in a "plane crash".
https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/20 ... ane-crash/


I wish I had the internet skills to edit up a"welcome to heaven meme"....
...but with Prigozhin, a couple of Boeing employees, Epstien, etc. welcoming him.

I can't tell if Mossad is getting sneakier or it's just further reasons to "never get in a helicopter again".

Its funny .....

Helicopters ARE kinda fussy to begin with in the first place.
I bet the odds of a legitimate accident are worse than fixed wing.

Was foggy, etc. sounds like a Kobe Bryant thing. Flying into some Cumulus Granite.

And ....again .... Iran (pilots, aero-mechanics, maintenance, etc)

If Mossuad, I wonder if they take stuff like this into consideration when they strike?

Accident waiting to happen? Here, let me help you with that

[5hout]

Its funny .....

Helicopters ARE kinda fussy to begin with in the first place.
I bet the odds of a legitimate accident are worse than fixed wing.

Was foggy, etc. sounds like a Kobe Bryant thing. Flying into some Cumulus Granite.

And ....again .... Iran (pilots, aero-mechanics, maintenance, etc)

If Mossuad, I wonder if they take stuff like this into consideration when they strike?

Accident waiting to happen? Here, let me help you with that

Who knows? I'm it's something nuanced like for stuff where they want to make a point they go #ClassicMossad and for other stuff they are actually super sneaky. They don't seem noted for stealth, but of course you'd never hear if they were and this is the kind of inflammatory thing you'd actually want to have a sneak (vs having motorcycles stick bombs to his car before zooming off).

[dw]

Meh, accidents happen.

Admittedly assassinations do too. But I wouldn't take for granted that this is even a desirable outcome for Israel. It's not like these leaders are irreplaceable.

Also I have no idea but would Israel really want to risk outright war with Iran, which would seem to be the likely outcome if they were caught assassinating its president?

[mikeylikey]

I wouldn't take for granted that this is even a desirable outcome for Israel.

I don't think they're sad about it.

[5hout]

I wouldn't take for granted that this is even a desirable outcome for Israel.

I don't think they're sad about it.

I think the question is (calling back to the We Killed Yamamoto plotline on the West Wing) "it only counts if you get caught in a way that the public cares about". Iran calls SO MANY people spies that even if they say "5 spies were onsite with the maintenance crew before takeoff" and produce 'proof' of their being spies, I don't think it moves the needle. Too much plausible deniability either way (both in terms of Iran routinely falsely claiming people are spies, ease of manufacturing evidence and also these fucking things crash all the time anyway).

I'm neutral on the idea, it seems somewhat likely (40% or greater), but we'll probably never know.

[dw]

I wouldn't take for granted that this is even a desirable outcome for Israel.

I don't think they're sad about it.

So your opinion is that Israel prefers his successor?

[hector]

Its funny .....

Helicopters ARE kinda fussy to begin with in the first place.
I bet the odds of a legitimate accident are worse than fixed wing.

Was foggy, etc. sounds like a Kobe Bryant thing. Flying into some Cumulus Granite.

And ....again .... Iran (pilots, aero-mechanics, maintenance, etc)

If Mossuad, I wonder if they take stuff like this into consideration when they strike?

Accident waiting to happen? Here, let me help you with that

Who knows? I'm it's something nuanced like for stuff where they want to make a point they go #ClassicMossad and for other stuff they are actually super sneaky. Theyy don't seem noted for stealth, but of course you'd never hear if they were and this is the kind of inflammatory thing you'd actually want to have a sneak (vs having motorcycles stick bombs to his car before zooming off).

I think (it has been years since I read up on this stuff) that the motorcyclists planting bombs were actually mujahedeen e khalq (MEK), Iranians who hate the Iranian government. And it was the Israelis who funded the MEK assassins and gave them the magnetic bombs they stuck to cars.
So the MEK were not subtle, some were caught, publicly hung. It’s hard to know how much Mossad cared about them getting caught, and it’s almost certain the MEK were not as highly trained as actual Mossad. So, I wouldn’t use the motorcycle assassinations of the Iranian WMD scientists to gauge the clandestinity (yes, a real word!) or covertness of actual Mossad.
A year or so ago, I think Israel claimed to have kidnapped, from inside Iran, an IRGC employee/affiliate/something with orders to execute Israelis. To me, this would represent a greater display of Israeli covert abilities and ability to collect and utilize intelligence than the 3rd party assassinations of the Iranian wmd scientists.

[5hout]

I think (it has been years since I read up on this stuff) that the motorcyclists planting bombs were actually mujahedeen e khalq (MEK), Iranians who hate the Iranian government. And it was the Israelis who funded the MEK assassins and gave them the magnetic bombs they stuck to cars.
So the MEK were not subtle, some were caught, publicly hung. It’s hard to know how much Mossad cared about them getting caught, and it’s almost certain the MEK were not as highly trained as actual Mossad. So, I wouldn’t use the motorcycle assassinations of the Iranian WMD scientists to gauge the clandestinity (yes, a real word!) or covertness of actual Mossad.
A year or so ago, I think Israel claimed to have kidnapped, from inside Iran, an IRGC employee/affiliate/something with orders to execute Israelis. To me, this would represent a greater display of Israeli covert abilities and ability to collect and utilize intelligence than the 3rd party assassinations of the Iranian wmd scientists.

That's even funnier than I had heard, but does cut against the general point. I was thinking of a lot of the Nazi assassinations (which obviously have other reasons for stealth or lack thereof). For example after constructing a plot to get Cukurs out of the country they shot him in the, left him in a trunk and then mailed this note to the newspapers on their way out of the country:

Taking into consideration the gravity of the charge leveled against the accused, namely that he personally supervised the killing of more than 30,000 men, women and children, and considering the extreme display of cruelty which the subject showed when carrying out his tasks, the accused Herberts Cukurs is hereby sentenced to death. Accused was executed by those who can never forget, on the 23rd of February, 1965. His body can be found at Casa Cubertini Calle Colombia, Séptima Sección del Departamento de Canelones, Montevideo, Uruguay.

Or the one who died of "suicide" via being stabbed in the chest (no note though).

[mikeylikey]

I wouldn't take for granted that this is even a desirable outcome for Israel.

I don't think they're sad about it.

So your opinion is that Israel prefers his successor?

Don't know anything about the successor, but since when do you contemplate a successor before giving a country the gift of regime change?

I imagine the prevailing sentiment in Israel is "the only good Iranian president is a dead Iranian president." Internal chaos in Iran is good for Israel right now, but I don't see the calculus where openly assassinating him helps their situation. I don't think Israel did it. More of a happy accident for them.

Anyway the president of Iran is more of a functionary right... the real power belonging to the Ayatollah?

[hector]

I wouldn't take for granted that this is even a desirable outcome for Israel.

I don't think they're sad about it.

So your opinion is that Israel prefers his successor?

Don't know anything about the successor, but since when do you contemplate a successor before giving a country the gift of regime change?

I imagine the prevailing sentiment in Israel is "the only good Iranian president is a dead Iranian president." Internal chaos in Iran is good for Israel right now, but I don't see the calculus where openly assassinating him helps their situation. I don't think Israel did it. More of a happy accident for them.

Anyway the president of Iran is more of a functionary right... the real power belonging to the Ayatollah?

The circumstances around a leader’s removal play a role in that country determining who the next leader will be.
If Israel is thought to have assassinated Iran’s leader then the people might demand a leader who is more anti-Israel. I think Israel is smart enough to take this into account. If you accept that the Israelis killed Gerald Bull over the super gun he was building for Iraq then, for sure, Israel puts some thought into how the murder willl be received by those in the victim’s community and what consequences will follow.

The Ayotollah is above the president. But there’s also an Islamic counsel of 7 that the Ayotollah nominally reports to? (I don’t remember if the Ayotallh chairs the counsel, reports to it, or if there’s some other arrangement.)

And consider this. The IRGC reports directly to the Ayotollah. But IRGC’s competing intel agency, the ministry of intelligence, reports to the president. However, when pursuing covert action abroad, the MOI oversees IRGC action. It is a confusing org chart for sure.

Correction: just googled. I was wrong. counsel has 12 members. Not 7.

[mbasic]

I know the article is about iraQ and not iraN, but pretty much the same thing here....and something to consider when dealing with people of this mindset/intelligence/etc. Sometimes, its ok just to bomb the fuck out of certain groups, or treat them as 2nd class world citizens (savages)...well, at least their leaders.

Sorry, but thats how i feel

https://www.middleeasteye.net/news/iraq ... en-married

[mikeylikey]

Sometimes, its ok just to bomb the fuck out of certain groups, or treat them as 2nd class world citizens (savages)...

Actually, it isn't.

well, at least their leaders.
Sorry, but thats how i feel

This feels like kindof a weaselly qualification of the first statement. Which is it?

[hector]

I know the article is about iraQ and not iraN, but pretty much the same thing here....and something to consider when dealing with people of this mindset/intelligence/etc. Sometimes, its ok just to bomb the fuck out of certain groups, or treat them as 2nd class world citizens (savages)...well, at least their leaders.

Sorry, but thats how i feel

https://www.middleeasteye.net/news/iraq ... en-married

I would argue we’ve gotten a negative ROI from two decades of killing Middle Easterners.

[mbasic]

maybe a bit of exaggeration .... the bombing part.

But I don't think you can in good faith negotiate, deal with, or have honest diplomatic interactions with people that fall into "marry-off-and-fuck-nine-year-old-girls" Venn diagram circle. Probably gonna have a lot of other weird negative characteristics, stone age mentalities, or bad logic pathways.

Just sayin'

But hey, lets totally get hung up on my (tongue and cheek) position and completely ignore the legalized child molestation and stomping all over women's rights part.

[aurelius]

But hey, lets totally get hung up on my (tongue and cheek) position and completely ignore the legalized child molestation and stomping all over women's rights part.

Some fundamentalist Christians believe in child marriage. Many states allow minors to be married off with the parents permission. It happens all over the world.

[Philbert]

But hey, lets totally get hung up on my (tongue and cheek) position and completely ignore the legalized child molestation and stomping all over women's rights part.

Some fundamentalist Christians believe in child marriage. Many states allow minors to be married off with the parents permission. It happens all over the world.

To your first point, if Federal legislation were to give these marriages full force of law, Canada would be (it's tongue in cheek, mbasic you cretin) justified in classifying US as barbarians. To your second, I think there is a difference between marriage of minors (which is legal under at least some circumstances in 37 states, and to be clear I do not condone) and marriage of children under the age of 12, which is legal nowhere in the US.

[aurelius]

@Philbert

US states are in charge of marriage. Basically if a state says it is a marriage it is.

I'm not equating anything. Then there is the R. Kelly is technically not a pedophile joke. It's kind of funny so worth the lookup. But basically if you start trying to explain the difference of being sexually attract to children, versus tweens, versus teens you kind of sound like a pedophile.

My point I was eluding to is if we are going to start bombing groups we find morally reprehensible, why not start in our own backyard? I think the slippery slope of such action is easier to see when it's not brown people on the other side of the planet.