Global Warming Thread

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aurelius
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Re: Global Warming Thread

#321

Post by aurelius » Mon May 16, 2022 10:04 am

mbasic wrote: Mon May 16, 2022 9:52 amSee also: Global warming / climate change. Its going to get worse. Summers will get hotter, while power will cost more year by year.
WAY Worse. Despite overwhelming evidence that Western States' water reservoirs will be depleted in a handful of years, Western states have done nothing to change the allocation paradigm or take preventative measures. Hint: California will no longer be able to grow avocados and almonds with water from basin transfers from other States. Most farming in the US uses practices the Babylonians would recognize (water wasteful). A LOT of water is lost every year from evaporation in reservoirs and open ditch irrigation.

As to power: I don't see power prices increasing long-term. Decentralized grids (grid with storage) are cheaper to maintain and take advantage of solar which is scalable (from single household to megawatt facilities). One would think Arizona of all places would have fully embraced a decentralized grid and solar. If people would pull their head out of their asses and build some nuclear power plants...but that is a big dream. In short, scalable and affordable technological solutions exist.

Prices will only increase if legislatures cave to special interests (or fight the culture warz) and continue to force people to use centralized grids supported by central power plants that utilize fossil fuels. Texas is a prime example of this.

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Re: Global Warming Thread

#322

Post by 5hout » Mon May 16, 2022 12:57 pm

aurelius wrote: Mon May 16, 2022 10:04 am Despite overwhelming evidence that Western States' water reservoirs will be depleted in a handful of years, Western states have done nothing to change the allocation paradigm or take preventative measures. Hint: California will no longer be able to grow avocados and almonds with water from basin transfers from other States. Most farming in the US uses practices the Babylonians would recognize (water wasteful). A LOT of water is lost every year from evaporation in reservoirs and open ditch irrigation.
San Jose just voted to NOT open a new desalination plant, with people campaigning against it talking (per usual) absolute bollocks about toilets and showers, while not mentioning agriculture at all. This drives me crazy. 22 years of drought (according to some headline yesterday (topnotch citation)) and their only answer is "drain baby drain!".

Their near total inability to seriously address water usage is one of the key components in me not giving a rat's ass what happens to Cali in the next 20 years. Accept, ad arguendo, that we're not headed for one of the better IPCC scenarios and are heading for one of the middle of the road badish ones (which is strongly implied by the gov's msg'ing) and it makes their current policies on ag water use/general water use completely insane.

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Re: Global Warming Thread

#323

Post by mbasic » Mon May 16, 2022 1:48 pm

5hout wrote: Mon May 16, 2022 12:57 pm
San Jose just voted to NOT open a new desalination plant, with people campaigning against it talking (per usual) absolute bollocks about toilets and showers, while not mentioning agriculture at all.
I tried googling it in the local news, most of the online papers are paywall.

Was there some kind of environmental concerns or something?

Why they wouldn't do this is just crazy?

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Re: Global Warming Thread

#324

Post by 5hout » Mon May 16, 2022 1:59 pm

mbasic wrote: Mon May 16, 2022 1:48 pm
5hout wrote: Mon May 16, 2022 12:57 pm
San Jose just voted to NOT open a new desalination plant, with people campaigning against it talking (per usual) absolute bollocks about toilets and showers, while not mentioning agriculture at all.
I tried googling it in the local news, most of the online papers are paywall.

Was there some kind of environmental concerns or something?

Why they wouldn't do this is just crazy?
https://12ft.io/proxy?q=https%3A%2F%2Fw ... toolkit%2F
Seawater desalination is among the most expensive water supply options," Heather Cooley, Pacific Institute's director of research, told CNN. "From a cost perspective, from an environmental one, from an energy perspective, doing these other alternatives first makes the most sense for California
From:
https://www.cnn.com/2022/05/12/us/calif ... index.html

A bonkers of a quote, given that they've done almost all the stupid easy stuff (except, you know, tackle the major entrenched consumers of water), and now it's down to praying for rain, energy intensive methods (desal), extreme rationing (while still allowing favored industries to waste water) or failure.

In a perfect world I'd believe she was saying "let's go after the people using water", but I'm nearly certain their going to do a bunch of dumb shit instead. The tell for me that she's full of shit is the worry about sea-level rise expressed in the article. Under any reasonable IPCC estimate it will not rise enough to be a problem for this plant in the next 50-100 years, but don't let our best estimates get in the way of naysaying water so you can fearmonger, Heater.

EDIT:

" It pointed to solutions that cost very little compared to desalination, including increased wastewater recycling and stormwater capture -- with about two-thirds of the region's potential water savings coming from the residential sector.". I'm not digging up their study, but I will guarantee this is nonsense. It either is 2/3rds coming from residential (but with insane costs or other massive downsides) or requires experimental tech to be deployed region wide, instantly, advancing science 20 years in the future as you do it.

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Re: Global Warming Thread

#325

Post by Culican » Mon May 16, 2022 2:26 pm

aurelius wrote: Mon May 16, 2022 10:04 am As to power: I don't see power prices increasing long-term. Decentralized grids (grid with storage) are cheaper to maintain and take advantage of solar which is scalable (from single household to megawatt facilities). One would think Arizona of all places would have fully embraced a decentralized grid and solar. If people would pull their head out of their asses and build some nuclear power plants...but that is a big dream. In short, scalable and affordable technological solutions exist.
With the heat here in Arizona, near peak power demand can last hour past peak solar production. In July and August it is over 100F till 11pm or later. Some type of storage is needed. I am not sure battery storage is ready for prime time in the amounts needed. We just had a battery storage facility catch fire a few weeks ago; the fire smoldered for days. Fire smolders at Chandler battery storage facility nearly two weeks later

On the other hand, we do have the largest nuke plant in the US.

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Re: Global Warming Thread

#326

Post by aurelius » Mon May 16, 2022 2:49 pm

Culican wrote: Mon May 16, 2022 2:26 pmWith the heat here in Arizona, near peak power demand can last hour past peak solar production. In July and August it is over 100F till 11pm or later. Some type of storage is needed. I am not sure battery storage is ready for prime time in the amounts needed. We just had a battery storage facility catch fire a few weeks ago; the fire smoldered for days. Fire smolders at Chandler battery storage facility nearly two weeks later

On the other hand, we do have the largest nuke plant in the US.
And here is a coal plant catching on fire https://abc13.com/power-plant-fire-nrg- ... /11830712/. There are over 200 active coal fires burning in the US. Things catch on fire. Especially if they are not designed, operated, and maintained correctly.

Grid battery storage is used all over the world. I don't believe the incident you posted is significant to draw a conclusion that the technology of battery storage is unable to meet power demands. The weakness of battery storage technology is it relies on lithium.

The Arizona nuclear power plant was built in the late 1980's. Imagine if Arizona invested in more nuclear power plants to meet 2022 demand in the intervening 30 years? Especially considering the advancements in nuclear power production since the 1970's and 80's (when essentially all of US nuclear power plants were built). Nuclear power is significantly safer (passive systems), more efficient, and produce less radioactive waste (even waste that can me converted to rare earth material). Imagine powering the US with uranium mined in the US that produces rare earth material used in the US chip industry. China would shit itself.

Sorry. This is a pet peeve. The US has a bunch of resources and cool technology to solve its problems. And we are talking about proven technology that is 30 years old. We don't so that a very few people with ownership/interests in fossil fuels can make a shit ton of money. Stoooooo-pid.

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Re: Global Warming Thread

#327

Post by 5hout » Mon May 16, 2022 4:59 pm

Even more, look into Thorium power plants. Wildly safer than Uranium based in operation and waste. Naturally, we've barely pushed the tech in years.

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Re: Global Warming Thread

#328

Post by omaniphil » Mon May 16, 2022 5:40 pm

I think there's a decent chance that we're 10 years away from commercial fusion*, at which point I think global warming becomes a non-issue. Not just because of the reduction in carbon output, but the vast amounts of cheap energy make things like mass desalinization possible and the increases the likelihood of us having the wealth and ability to adapt to global warming.

* Helion Energy and General Fusion are the two closest to showing + net power in their demo models. Once they do, scaling up should bring exponential increases in power produced. Additional good news - Helion uses deuterium + He3 fusion, which is aneutronic, so there will be no concerns about radiation.

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Re: Global Warming Thread

#329

Post by aurelius » Mon May 16, 2022 6:54 pm

omaniphil wrote: Mon May 16, 2022 5:40 pm I think there's a decent chance that we're 10 years away from commercial fusion*, at which point I think global warming becomes a non-issue. Not just because of the reduction in carbon output, but the vast amounts of cheap energy make things like mass desalinization possible and the increases the likelihood of us having the wealth and ability to adapt to global warming.

* Helion Energy and General Fusion are the two closest to showing + net power in their demo models. Once they do, scaling up should bring exponential increases in power produced. Additional good news - Helion uses deuterium + He3 fusion, which is aneutronic, so there will be no concerns about radiation.
It wouldn't be the first time technological progress got us out of a jam. But that is essentially all we can hope for. That a very small percentage of the population, scientists and engineers, create wonders that 99% of the population don't understand to solve our problems. Essentially the human species' problem solving strategy is

Image

We deserve to go extinct.

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Re: Global Warming Thread

#330

Post by KyleSchuant » Tue May 17, 2022 12:51 am

5hout wrote: Mon May 16, 2022 12:57 pmThis drives me crazy. 22 years of drought -
This reminds me of a guy I knew who said he had a "temporary" separation from his wife. It'd been 5 years.

I think after 22 years you have to stop calling it "drought" and just call it "the local climate."

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Re: Global Warming Thread

#331

Post by stuffedsuperdud » Tue May 17, 2022 1:47 am

omaniphil wrote: Mon May 16, 2022 5:40 pm I think there's a decent chance that we're 10 years away from commercial fusion*, at which point I think global warming becomes a non-issue. Not just because of the reduction in carbon output, but the vast amounts of cheap energy make things like mass desalinization possible and the increases the likelihood of us having the wealth and ability to adapt to global warming.

* Helion Energy and General Fusion are the two closest to showing + net power in their demo models. Once they do, scaling up should bring exponential increases in power produced. Additional good news - Helion uses deuterium + He3 fusion, which is aneutronic, so there will be no concerns about radiation.
I desperately want this to be true but even if the physics works in the proof of concept, I am not confident that the scaling is a natural next step, or at least not one that will stop us from getting to the hellscape of 2.8°C or whatever horrible # it is we are trending towards. Aside from the technical challenges, how do we know that historically uncreative firms like ExxonMobil will either 1. be smart and pivot to embrace the new tech and make shitloads of money for their psychopath board members and some scraps for their shareholders, or 2. just go quietly into the night and good riddance to that shit?

How do we know they won't do what they've been doing since the 70s, that is, running a massive disinformation campaign, paying off every last craven decisionmaker in office, buying the fusion IP and killing it, and then, just for fun, doxxing the fusion scientists and their political advocates and siccing the Q / MAGA retards onto them? I'm asking seriously as I'd really want this miracle tech to work but the events of the last several years have killed what little faith I had in our ability to actually solve a problem instead of letting it kill the plebes while the aristocrats eat endangered animals, do designer drugs, and have that Eyes Wide Shut orgy in their high-altitude fortress.

aurelius wrote: Mon May 16, 2022 6:54 pm It wouldn't be the first time technological progress got us out of a jam. But that is essentially all we can hope for. That a very small percentage of the population, scientists and engineers, create wonders that 99% of the population don't understand to solve our problems.
Relevant:


aurelius wrote: Mon May 16, 2022 6:54 pm We deserve to go extinct.

Ever read The Marching Morons? A short sci-fi story that is essentially a 1950s take on Idiocracy. A future not totally lacking smart people like in Idiocracy but a more realistic one where an incredibly stupid society sort of limps on while a cadre of people with what would be considered average intelligence by 1950s standards works desperately behind the scenes to keep the human race from imploding. If this works, that would be the best we could report for the history books, that a few nerds held us together despite our top efforts to undermine them.

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Re: Global Warming Thread

#332

Post by Brackish » Tue May 17, 2022 5:04 am

mbasic wrote: Mon May 16, 2022 6:00 am this caught my eye:

https://www.nbcnews.com/news/us-news/te ... -rcna28849

The executive asked customers to set their thermostats to 78 degrees and avoid using large appliances in the afternoon and early evening.

78? That's about what mine is set at full time, in the summer.
Occasionally I'll do 76 at night.
I've heard stories of people that keep their houses at 72. WTF, that's gotta be expensive.

A few summers ago we tolerated 82 during the day, and turning it down to 80 at night (to sleep).
At night, my thermostat is set at 68. During the day, I keep it at 72. My electric bill is never more than $150/month (significantly less than my neighbors). Like others have said, I think whether or not a given temperature is "expensive" depends on a ton of factors.

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Re: Global Warming Thread

#333

Post by Allentown » Tue May 17, 2022 6:30 am

My house is from the 20s, and needs some major renovations if I want to be able to afford to keep my house at 68 in the summer.

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Re: Global Warming Thread

#334

Post by 5hout » Tue May 17, 2022 7:03 am

Allentown wrote: Tue May 17, 2022 6:30 am My house is from the 20s, and needs some major renovations if I want to be able to afford to keep my house at 68 in the summer.
How old is your roof? If your roof is newish, then blown in insulation can be a game changer. If your roof is nearing replacement (or you have any projects that require attic access) though, I'd hold off b/c having leaks/adventures up there will be the suck after.

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Re: Global Warming Thread

#335

Post by quikky » Tue May 17, 2022 7:33 am

mbasic wrote: Mon May 16, 2022 9:52 am
quikky wrote: Mon May 16, 2022 6:24 am
mbasic wrote: Mon May 16, 2022 6:00 am I've heard stories of people that keep their houses at 72. WTF, that's gotta be expensive.
Depends on the energy efficiency of the AC system and the house itself. A house built with modern efficiency standards, with the right size energy efficient AC, and good windows, won't be that expensive to cool, even to 72.
I'm in Phoenix. We had a couple of spells of 110+F for SEVERAL weeks in a row a couple of summers ago (and this is not uncommon).
My house was new/built in 2003, (A/C unit was replaced in 2019) ....
...at the time it certified and energy efficient class by the power co's standards (admittedly has changed/gotten better since then).

Also, "expensive" is relative to persons income and financial status and inflationary situation.

Most of west and south texas ... and so.cal away from the coast are not much better.

See also: Global warming / climate change. Its going to get worse. Summers will get hotter, while power will cost more year by year.
Well, expensive in this context is relative to what people typically pay. You can have two houses of the same size in the same area, and one could cost significantly less to cool. In climates like in AZ, energy inefficient houses of average size can cost $400+ to cool during the summer, while efficient ones running 72-76F can cost $150. This makes the former expensive, and the latter, not, regardless of personal income.

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Re: Global Warming Thread

#336

Post by Allentown » Tue May 17, 2022 10:32 am

5hout wrote: Tue May 17, 2022 7:03 am
Allentown wrote: Tue May 17, 2022 6:30 am My house is from the 20s, and needs some major renovations if I want to be able to afford to keep my house at 68 in the summer.
How old is your roof? If your roof is newish, then blown in insulation can be a game changer. If your roof is nearing replacement (or you have any projects that require attic access) though, I'd hold off b/c having leaks/adventures up there will be the suck after.
Needs to be replaced probably 5-10 years. Also currently store things up in the attic.

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Re: Global Warming Thread

#337

Post by mikeylikey » Wed May 18, 2022 8:32 am

aurelius wrote: Mon May 16, 2022 6:54 pm It wouldn't be the first time technological progress got us out of a jam. But that is essentially all we can hope for. That a very small percentage of the population, scientists and engineers, create wonders that 99% of the population don't understand to solve our problems. Essentially the human species' problem solving strategy is

Image

We deserve to go extinct.
Someone once said,

"When you live in a rational society, where men are free to trade, you receive an incalculable bonus: the material value of your work is determined not only by your effort, but by the effort of the best productive minds who exist in the world around you.

If you worked as a blacksmith in the mystics’ Middle Ages, the whole of your earning capacity would consist of an iron bar produced by your hands in days and days of effort.

When you work in a modern factory, you are paid, not only for your labor, but for all the productive genius which has made that factory possible: for the work of the industrialist who built it, for the work of the investor who saved the money to risk on the untried and the new, for the work of the engineer who designed the machines of which you are pushing the levers, for the work of the inventor who created the product which you spend your time on making, for the work of the scientist who discovered the laws that went into the making of that product, for the work of the philosopher who taught men how to think.

The machine, the frozen form of a living intelligence, is the power that expands the potential of your life by raising the productivity of your time.

Would you dare to claim that the size of your pay check was created solely by your physical labor... the product of your muscles? The standard of living of that blacksmith is all that your muscles are worth; the rest is a gift."

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Re: Global Warming Thread

#338

Post by aurelius » Wed May 18, 2022 8:56 am

mikeylikey wrote: Wed May 18, 2022 8:32 amSTUFF
Would you dare to claim that the size of your pay check was created solely by your physical labor... the product of your muscles? The standard of living of that blacksmith is all that your muscles are worth; the rest is a gift."
I am not understanding how this relates to my post bemoaning how We make decisions as a society.

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Re: Global Warming Thread

#339

Post by mikeylikey » Wed May 18, 2022 9:57 am

aurelius wrote: Wed May 18, 2022 8:56 am
mikeylikey wrote: Wed May 18, 2022 8:32 amSTUFF
Would you dare to claim that the size of your pay check was created solely by your physical labor... the product of your muscles? The standard of living of that blacksmith is all that your muscles are worth; the rest is a gift."
I am not understanding how this relates to my post bemoaning how We make decisions as a society.
It's a feature not a bug.

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Re: Global Warming Thread

#340

Post by aurelius » Wed May 18, 2022 10:22 am

mikeylikey wrote: Wed May 18, 2022 9:57 amIt's a feature not a bug.
I do not understand how your general narrative describing how group knowledge begets technological progress resulting individual prosperity/productivity relates to my dissatisfaction with the past 50 years of US energy policy.

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