Coronavirus

[GrainsAndGains]

The number of non-identified infections could be pretty huge, though. The population of identified infections is necessarily going to contain people exhibiting more severe symptoms, because they're more likely to seek medical attention. Almost certainly there are thousands of minor infections that are not being accounted for, because the patient doesn't get sufficiently sick enough before recovering to merit a diagnosis. If their symptoms are more like the common cold, they're probably not even seeing a doctor.

None of this is good, but it's important to remember that we might just be dealing with another pathogen that causes the common cold in most cases rather than a disaster-level pandemic.

[iamsmu]

I think the methods that they seem to be calculating the fatality rate seems to be completely arbitrary. They're basically calculating the fatality rate by using [current death toll]/[current total infected] which seems silly when you think about the ~5 day latency period, and that the deaths come in the pneumonia stage which is 5-6 days after initial infection.

I feel like the fatality rate would be better calculated as being [current death toll]/[total number of infected 10 days ago] which would yield a much higher number. Using todays's numbers that would be 492 dead/2015 infected on Jan 25. Looking at a death toll closer to 24%.

Of course this would be mitigated by the number of non-identified infections as of the Jan 25 date, but I feel like this number is probably a lot closer to the actual fatality rate. Time to start prepping.

Yes. This is a fundamental mistake. You can only do this style of calculation when it's over.

Since the # infected is probably way off, it could go either way.

There were some death totals in the NYTs for Sars and Swine flu.

The 1918 “Spanish flu” killed only about 2.5 percent of its victims — but because it infected so many people and medical care was much cruder then, an estimated 50 million died, perhaps even more.

By contrast, the highly transmissible H1N1 “swine flu” pandemic of 2009 killed about 285,000, fewer than seasonal flu normally does, and had a relatively low fatality rate, estimated at .02 percent.

If the new coronavirus had just a 2% fatality rate and spread really fast and far, say infecting everyone in the world, all 7.7 billion people, 154 million would die. That's a lot of bodies. Halve the number infected, but increase the fatality rate to 3% and that's still 115 million dead.

It doesn't have to be that fatal if it is highly contagious to wipe out the equivalent of the population of Japan. Imagine someone dead on every suburban block, multiple dead on each city block.

. . . That fatality rate is sure to be a lot higher in poor countries. . . .

I'm not worried about dying (though I never do well with the flu, it nearly always messes me up for a long time). I'm more worried about how things will function when 1/3rd or just 1/5th of the population is all out sick at the same time. Add in a winter storm and everything from electricity to food supplies could be disrupted. . . .

1918, Kansas



2020, Wuhan:



https://www.npr.org/sections/goatsandso ... are-scarce

[iamsmu]

https://afludiary.blogspot.com/

Two cruise ships quarantined now. 10 positive on one of them so far.

A 39 year old man died in Hong Kong.
. . .

[mbasic]

A 39 year old man died in Hong Kong.

yeah, i can't remember if i posted that before ^

so that ^,
AND the guy (dead now) in the Philippines was only 44 or something.

[mbasic]

What if I person just DOES get a common cold, or is having a bad allergy day, or has a fever something innocuous?

...then gets stuffed into one of these facilities (and gets corona)

[aurelius]

What if I person just DOES get a common cold, or is having a bad allergy day, or has a fever something innocuous?

...then gets stuffed into one of these facilities (and gets corona)

The needs of the many outweigh the needs of the few or the one.

[Bcharles123]

What if I person just DOES get a common cold, or is having a bad allergy day, or has a fever something innocuous?

...then gets stuffed into one of these facilities (and gets corona)

The needs of the many outweigh the needs of the few or the one.

Agreed. Scuttle the cruise ships. Now

[iamsmu]

Agreed. Scuttle the cruise ships. Now

Near optimal containment option. Sorry 3,700 passengers. I'm sure you all agree that this is for the best. We've done run out of masks.

[iamsmu]

It's now in Wisconsin. The person seems to have recovered and is now in the disease equivalent of witness protection.

https://www.channel3000.com/dhs-confirm ... uw-health/

[mbasic]

Agreed. Scuttle the cruise ships. Now

Near optimal containment option. Sorry 3,700 passengers. I'm sure you all agree that this is for the best. We've done run out of masks.

lolz ^

quarantined cruise passenger:
"hey, they're taking the ship way out to sea for some reason"

the first two seconds of that clip made me real uneasy

[mbasic]

I wonder how this work?
Is this some kind of bleach fogger?

Or, I wonder if they're actual spraying for mosquitoes?
(thinking they'll just "hedge their bets" just in case mosquitoes can spread it).



Oh, this is good. What if there's a fire or something.
Lock them inside an apartment building.

[mbasic]

In a sad and weird twist .... this whole mess will get into the whole China-Taiwan thing.

I guess the World Health Organization will only deal/recognize Mainland Communist China, and not Taiwan....so all communication, aid, etc goes to/through China, and not Taiwan as its own country.

[fibula]

The "700 people die of the flu every day (across the entire globe)" argument looks pretty naive now when it's 100 people dying every day in just Wuhan alone. When this breaks out (when, not if, unfortunately), it's going big. A virologist friend tells me that he expects a 1% planetary die-off, mostly over-60s people with other health conditions, as in Wuhan. A bad flu season multiplied by a factor of about 100.

[Bcharles123]

The "700 people die of the flu every day (across the entire globe)" argument looks pretty naive now when it's 100 people dying every day in just Wuhan alone. When this breaks out (when, not if, unfortunately), it's going big. A virologist friend tells me that he expects a 1% planetary die-off, mostly over-60s people with other health conditions, as in Wuhan. A bad flu season multiplied by a factor of about 100.

Yeah these things can be very divergent. Meaning they can spread much quicker than expected. Unlike natural or man made events which tend to be bounded problems.

I believe there is an optimization (in a very bad way) that says if something is too lethal, it won’t spread as much. The modeling is very good but small unknowns can result in big errors.

[mbasic]

Whistle-blower doctor dies from the virus: https://www.cnn.com/2020/02/06/asia/li- ... index.html
He was 34.

So either:
1 - ChiComs killed him (insert Epstien didn't kill himself meme here)
or
2 - The virus is much more worse than the common flu.

So pick your poison, or both.

[omaniphil]

Whistle-blower doctor dies from the virus: https://www.cnn.com/2020/02/06/asia/li- ... index.html
He was 34.

Fake news. He's still alive. But in critical condition.

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/02/06/worl ... virus.html

[mbasic]

Fake news YOUR fake news^

[iamsmu]

Fake news YOUR fake news^

As other's have noted, he's not allowed to die yet. The Chinese government had to resurrect him. Maybe in a few weeks he'll die in some kind of car accident.

[mbasic]

Fake news YOUR fake news^

As other's have noted, he's not allowed to die yet. The Chinese government had to resurrect him. Maybe in a few weeks he'll die in some kind of car accident.

...until then, a whole Weekend At Bernie's scenario will have to play out.


Do you China is dumb enough to shut off the internet in that entire province? Is that an option?

[iamsmu]

Fake news YOUR fake news^

As other's have noted, he's not allowed to die yet. The Chinese government had to resurrect him. Maybe in a few weeks he'll die in some kind of car accident.

...until then, a whole Weekend At Bernie's scenario will have to play out.


Do you China is dumb enough to shut off the internet in that entire province? Is that an option?

They say he's in intensive care. They just need to put some pillows under a sheet and say that the good doctor is resting.