Makes sense. Chain gangs were once common practice long after 1865.
The epic tales of Corn Pop’s young companion (POTUS46 complaint department)
- aurelius
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Re: The epic tales of Corn Pop’s young companion (POTUS46 complaint department)
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Re: The epic tales of Corn Pop’s young companion (POTUS46 complaint department)
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Re: The epic tales of Corn Pop’s young companion (POTUS46 complaint department)
Don't you hate when you're reading an assortment of top secret documents about the country your son works for, and you spill coffee on the envelope they go in, and the only other envelope you have is one marked "Personal", and so you put them in the envelope and you get your pen and you start to cross out "Personal" and write in "Top Secret Files" and right then the phone rings, and then you totally forget what you were doing and later you stuff the envelope in a box in your closet? Don't you hate that?
- 5hout
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Re: The epic tales of Corn Pop’s young companion (POTUS46 complaint department)
https://natesilver.substack.com/p/polli ... -political
Basically, Nate Silver (no longer at 538) bemoans 538 turning into just another DNC operative firm (some editorializing by me). I thought it was interesting and should be cited for reference here as 2024 gears up.
Basically, Nate Silver (no longer at 538) bemoans 538 turning into just another DNC operative firm (some editorializing by me). I thought it was interesting and should be cited for reference here as 2024 gears up.
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Re: The epic tales of Corn Pop’s young companion (POTUS46 complaint department)
5hout wrote: ↑Mon Jul 03, 2023 8:33 am https://natesilver.substack.com/p/polli ... -political
Basically, Nate Silver (no longer at 538) bemoans 538 turning into just another DNC operative firm (some editorializing by me). I thought it was interesting and should be cited for reference here as 2024 gears up.
I don't read 538 often but I remember something interesting in this regard.
On the eve of the 2016 election 538 put Trump at something like 35% to win, which was far higher than was widely assumed by Democrats and generally "educated people".
I read their analysis with interest because I know Silver is for lack of a better term a legitimate analyst, and 35% was way higher than I would have guessed.
Anyway the comment section savaged him, claiming he had inflated the number as clickbait.
So of course the next day Trump has won and I go back to the comment section. The commenters, rather than praising Silver for being more accurate than any other well known analyst were again criticizing him, this time for... I can't quite remember, giving them a false sense of confidence? Not predicting the Trump win?
Anyway you can see how a hackier analyst would just have desk-drawered that 35% prediction and come up with a new method that favored Clinton.
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Re: The epic tales of Corn Pop’s young companion (POTUS46 complaint department)
This was a good read.5hout wrote: ↑Mon Jul 03, 2023 8:33 am https://natesilver.substack.com/p/polli ... -political
Basically, Nate Silver (no longer at 538) bemoans 538 turning into just another DNC operative firm (some editorializing by me). I thought it was interesting and should be cited for reference here as 2024 gears up.
Started off strong:
This came across as a “good luck with your training” implying “gfys” in some ways.I’m now a free agent! Yesterday was the last day of my contract with Disney, which is in the midst of a series of layoffs including most of the FiveThirtyEight staff. Having worked for the company for nearly 10 years, I wish them well and thank them for the opportunity.
I haven’t read Nate Silver’s work in a while, but I have read “Signal in the Noise” and will likely buy his next book. His narrative voice in his article is different than I remember. Basically, a bit less optimistic and a bit more curmudgeonly. I can appreciate that.
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Re: The epic tales of Corn Pop’s young companion (POTUS46 complaint department)
By the 2020 election, he had about had it with people’s shit. By last year’s midterms, he was downright hostile, and justifiably so.mgil wrote: ↑Tue Jul 04, 2023 4:32 am I haven’t read Nate Silver’s work in a while, but I have read “Signal in the Noise” and will likely buy his next book. His narrative voice in his article is different than I remember. Basically, a bit less optimistic and a bit more curmudgeonly. I can appreciate that.
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Re: The epic tales of Corn Pop’s young companion (POTUS46 complaint department)
I can sympathize.DCR wrote: ↑Wed Jul 05, 2023 8:05 amBy the 2020 election, he had about had it with people’s shit. By last year’s midterms, he was downright hostile, and justifiably so.mgil wrote: ↑Tue Jul 04, 2023 4:32 am I haven’t read Nate Silver’s work in a while, but I have read “Signal in the Noise” and will likely buy his next book. His narrative voice in his article is different than I remember. Basically, a bit less optimistic and a bit more curmudgeonly. I can appreciate that.
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Re: The epic tales of Corn Pop’s young companion (POTUS46 complaint department)
Silver was very dishonest about the midterms IMO. He very much pushed the narrative that republicans were for sure going to have landslide wins despite his own model showing tossups. Then when so many democrats outran their poll numbers in competitive elections, he comes out and focuses on how the national polls overestimated dems by a very small margin.DCR wrote: ↑Wed Jul 05, 2023 8:05 amBy the 2020 election, he had about had it with people’s shit. By last year’s midterms, he was downright hostile, and justifiably so.mgil wrote: ↑Tue Jul 04, 2023 4:32 am I haven’t read Nate Silver’s work in a while, but I have read “Signal in the Noise” and will likely buy his next book. His narrative voice in his article is different than I remember. Basically, a bit less optimistic and a bit more curmudgeonly. I can appreciate that.
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Re: The epic tales of Corn Pop’s young companion (POTUS46 complaint department)
Did he?SSJBartSimpson wrote: ↑Mon Jul 10, 2023 12:11 amSilver was very dishonest about the midterms IMO. He very much pushed the narrative that republicans were for sure going to have landslide wins despite his own model showing tossups. Then when so many democrats outran their poll numbers in competitive elections, he comes out and focuses on how the national polls overestimated dems by a very small margin.DCR wrote: ↑Wed Jul 05, 2023 8:05 amBy the 2020 election, he had about had it with people’s shit. By last year’s midterms, he was downright hostile, and justifiably so.mgil wrote: ↑Tue Jul 04, 2023 4:32 am I haven’t read Nate Silver’s work in a while, but I have read “Signal in the Noise” and will likely buy his next book. His narrative voice in his article is different than I remember. Basically, a bit less optimistic and a bit more curmudgeonly. I can appreciate that.
https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/fi ... -forecast/
https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/th ... ion-night/
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Re: The epic tales of Corn Pop’s young companion (POTUS46 complaint department)
SSJBartSimpson wrote: ↑Mon Jul 10, 2023 12:11 amSilver was very dishonest about the midterms IMO. He very much pushed the narrative that republicans were for sure going to have landslide wins despite his own model showing tossups. Then when so many democrats outran their poll numbers in competitive elections, he comes out and focuses on how the national polls overestimated dems by a very small margin.DCR wrote: ↑Wed Jul 05, 2023 8:05 amBy the 2020 election, he had about had it with people’s shit. By last year’s midterms, he was downright hostile, and justifiably so.mgil wrote: ↑Tue Jul 04, 2023 4:32 am I haven’t read Nate Silver’s work in a while, but I have read “Signal in the Noise” and will likely buy his next book. His narrative voice in his article is different than I remember. Basically, a bit less optimistic and a bit more curmudgeonly. I can appreciate that.
Why would he push that narrative?
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Re: The epic tales of Corn Pop’s young companion (POTUS46 complaint department)
Yes, like I said his model showed a tossup environment. That Nathaniel Redd and Blue debates were just stupid.DCR wrote: ↑Mon Jul 10, 2023 4:17 amDid he?SSJBartSimpson wrote: ↑Mon Jul 10, 2023 12:11 amSilver was very dishonest about the midterms IMO. He very much pushed the narrative that republicans were for sure going to have landslide wins despite his own model showing tossups. Then when so many democrats outran their poll numbers in competitive elections, he comes out and focuses on how the national polls overestimated dems by a very small margin.DCR wrote: ↑Wed Jul 05, 2023 8:05 amBy the 2020 election, he had about had it with people’s shit. By last year’s midterms, he was downright hostile, and justifiably so.mgil wrote: ↑Tue Jul 04, 2023 4:32 am I haven’t read Nate Silver’s work in a while, but I have read “Signal in the Noise” and will likely buy his next book. His narrative voice in his article is different than I remember. Basically, a bit less optimistic and a bit more curmudgeonly. I can appreciate that.
https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/fi ... -forecast/
https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/th ... ion-night/
On his podcast the week before he was talking about how the model was going to soon turn to showing a big advantage for the GOP, and he repeatably dismissed claims that GOP-biased pollsters may be saturating the polling averages. He said people who were taking good news away from early voting data wish-casting. He was all about the red wave, and never admitted that swing state polls uniformly underestimated the democrats. He just kept claiming they were just under the normal margin of error, which was not true in a lot of cases.
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Re: The epic tales of Corn Pop’s young companion (POTUS46 complaint department)
Exodus Brain Trust, how normal is it for Pres or VP to use pseudonyms in .gov emails? A quick google search returned one 2016 story on Obama doing this in comms to Clinton and also some references to Deep Throat.
https://nypost.com/2023/08/17/comer-dem ... le-vp/amp/
https://nypost.com/2023/08/17/comer-dem ... le-vp/amp/
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Re: The epic tales of Corn Pop’s young companion (POTUS46 complaint department)
I don't know, but I look forward to seeing people explain how this is actually perfectly normal and nothing to see here and it we shouldn't find anything weird about it.BostonRugger wrote: ↑Thu Aug 17, 2023 9:17 am Exodus Brain Trust, how normal is it for Pres or VP to use pseudonyms in .gov emails? A quick google search returned one 2016 story on Obama doing this in comms to Clinton and also some references to Deep Throat.
https://nypost.com/2023/08/17/comer-dem ... le-vp/amp/
Remember when the laptop was Russian misinformation and 50+ people with security clearances signed on saying so and then it turned out that it was completely normal for former CIA operatives to run ops on the US media and we shouldn't care about this?
https://www.politico.com/f/?id=00000175 ... 9f9b330000
Strong vibes of that here.
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Re: The epic tales of Corn Pop’s young companion (POTUS46 complaint department)
I don’t know if it’s normal.5hout wrote: ↑Thu Aug 17, 2023 12:25 pmI don't know, but I look forward to seeing people explain how this is actually perfectly normal and nothing to see here and it we shouldn't find anything weird about it.BostonRugger wrote: ↑Thu Aug 17, 2023 9:17 am Exodus Brain Trust, how normal is it for Pres or VP to use pseudonyms in .gov emails? A quick google search returned one 2016 story on Obama doing this in comms to Clinton and also some references to Deep Throat.
https://nypost.com/2023/08/17/comer-dem ... le-vp/amp/
Remember when the laptop was Russian misinformation and 50+ people with security clearances signed on saying so and then it turned out that it was completely normal for former CIA operatives to run ops on the US media and we shouldn't care about this?
https://www.politico.com/f/?id=00000175 ... 9f9b330000
Strong vibes of that here.
But an alias seems like one of a number of reasonable precautions to take if you know foreign states are going to try to intercept your email.
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Re: The epic tales of Corn Pop’s young companion (POTUS46 complaint department)
Maybe. Email transmission is encrypted and if he followed any sort of precautions, the email itself would be encrypted too.
If a foreign adversary intercepted a transmission from Air Force 2, managed to wrangle enough super computers, running for however many lifetimes of the universe it takes to break modern encryption, I don't think they'll be stymied much by an email alias. "Oops! Turns out this email is just from oj.idenbay@mailgay.com. dang!"
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Re: The epic tales of Corn Pop’s young companion (POTUS46 complaint department)
https://www.newsweek.com/joe-biden-maui ... ry-1821486
Posted for 4 reasons. First, it's depressingly hilarious. Second, standard "if an R had said this would be wall-to-wall news for weeks". Third, this is the confused rambling of someone that should be sitting in a rocking chair with a coffee (dash of scotch added after 5pm). Fourth, this kind of stuff seems to be getting more traction in mainstream media now. Is the tide going out on Pres. Malarkey?"I don't want to compare difficulties but we have a little sense, Jill and I, of what it's like to lose a home," he said. "Years ago now, 15 years ago, I was in Washington doing Meet the Press. It was a sunny Sunday," he continued.
"Lightning struck at home, on a little lake that's outside of our home—not a lake, a big pond,—and hit a wire that came up underneath our home into the heating ducts and air conditioning ducts," he added.
"To make a long story short, I almost lost my wife, my '67 Corvette, and my cat."
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Re: The epic tales of Corn Pop’s young companion (POTUS46 complaint department)
Not trying to take a dig at you, but, oblig:
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Re: The epic tales of Corn Pop’s young companion (POTUS46 complaint department)
It's a classic #HeartBostonRugger wrote: ↑Tue Aug 22, 2023 8:07 am Not trying to take a dig at you, but, oblig:
Image Removed
Related but I'd love to see an insane app that does the following:
When you read a news story it asks ChatGPT (or similar) to roll a dice and (say) 25% of the time reverse the politically coded words. So when you're reading stuff on the web you're fact checking your biases by sometimes reading stuff from one side that actually has been flipped. Tech isn't there yet to do this, but one day...
Lord knows what us vaguely libertarians would need though. Maybe it just flips everything to be a Ron Paul/John Rawls quote.