The Russia vs Ukraine show

[mbasic]

How much you guys wanna to be this amounts to a big ol' nothing-burger .... say six months from now?

Put your money where your mouth is?

[5hout]

How much you guys wanna to be this amounts to a big ol' nothing-burger .... say six months from now?

Put your money where your mouth is?

30k sound good? Doing it as we speak.

[mbasic]

How much you guys wanna to be this amounts to a big ol' nothing-burger .... say six months from now?

Put your money where your mouth is?

30k sound good? Doing it as we speak.

I might wait a bit myself...maybe another day or two.
I haven't done my taxes yet, so I might do my 7K IRA contribution for 2022, and can't remember if I maxed out '21
(just fuckin' around here as my IRA, is not a big portion of my overall 'portfolio' or whatever)

.... just find it funny when there's a huge rebound after one of these things happen.

=====================

I can't remember, but I'll dbl check when I do this ^.
But I think I also bought when shit tanked from the CoVID 19 ChINa vIRuS OuTbREaK !!!! ... I'll have to see the dates on those contributions.

[5hout]

I have to do my taxes, but I (without fail) get a late or amended 1099/W2 in March so I always wait till April. Perfect excuse and holy shit would I hate having to amend.

[omaniphil]

Based on a review of information it seems the current action is broad scale air/missile attack on Ukraine command and control forces, medium scale physical incursion, likely to be followed by a retrenchment into the Donbass (under the pretexutal "invitation" of the separatist leaders) (moderate confidence prediction as this follows the plan of their actions in Georgia and Crimea, among others). If we wanted to predict further I'd bet in 5-8 years, after some digestion and limited (if any) insurgency Russia will gear up and do this again to connect Crimea to the Donbass for "secure transport reasons".

Media reports of "full scale war" seem to be attempts to hype this up and overblown. While the air/missile incursion is full country I have not seen reports of following physical troops outside of limited regions (i.e. no paratrooper/fast attack followup to seize important points throughout the country). Russia seems to be crippling C&C while leaving government intact and providing an out for Zelenksy to "staunchly oppose" this while basically giving up the contested regions.

I admire your and @mbasic's optimism, but I disagree. CNN has video of Russian paratroopers on the ground in Kiev attempting to secure an airport. I think you have to take Putin at his word from his speech on Monday where he argued that Ukraine doesn't have a right to exist as a separate state. The same argument that Putin used could also be applied to other countries that once formed part of Tsarist Russia. There's a reason that Poland, Lithuania, Estonia and Latvia have invoked Article 4 of NATO.

The Ukrainian military is likely to be defeated this week (not before seriously bloodying Russia's nose), there will likely be an insurgency that follows that may be successful in causing Russia to withdraw. But I would not be surprised war broke out in Europe more broadly. The generally peaceful post WWII order is over I'm afraid. And Xi Jinping is probably looking at the fecklessness of the West and and taking notes.

[5hout]

I admire your and mbasic optimism, but I disagree. CNN has video of Russian paratroopers on the ground in Kiev attempting to secure an airport. I think you have to take Putin at his word from his speech on Monday where he argued that Ukraine doesn't have a right to exist as a separate state. The same argument that Putin used could also be applied to other countries that once formed part of Tsarist Russia. There's a reason that Poland, Lithuania, Estonia and Latvia have invoked Article 4 of NATO.

The Ukrainian military is likely to be defeated this week (not before seriously bloodying Russia's nose), there will likely be an insurgency that follows that may be successful in causing Russia to withdraw. But I would not be surprised war broke out in Europe more broadly. The generally peaceful post WWII order is over I'm afraid. And Xi Jinping is probably looking at the fecklessness of the West and and taking notes.

Fair enough, didn't see the video before and it would have changed my mind at least 15%. Because it is CNN I'll dock them some points and assume it is somehow misleading, but still evidence that this isn't going to be big bite/small chew.

I'm not as worried about the larger ramifications for the post WW2 order as I think we've been functionally drifting along pretending the world is monopolar b/c no one felt like testing it, but China/Russia/India weren't going to let the Western Europe/USA alliance bluff forever. It is unreasonable to expect massive deference in our own hemisphere, and yet expect China/Russia/India to politely refuse to do the same.

[mbasic]

This is a barbell strength training forum, right?



google translate yields (granted, who knows how accurate that is):
"

klokovd
Verified
I don't give a fuck… what different people think about it, but MY FAMILY didn't need this war…
.
February 24, 2022"

Its going to be hard(er) to sell seminars, re-banded chinese barbells and lifting straps man .... "my family".

[mbasic]

I admire your and mbasic optimism, but I disagree. CNN has video of Russian paratroopers on the ground in Kiev attempting to secure an airport. I think you have to take Putin at his word from his speech on Monday where he argued that Ukraine doesn't have a right to exist as a separate state. The same argument that Putin used could also be applied to other countries that once formed part of Tsarist Russia. There's a reason that Poland, Lithuania, Estonia and Latvia have invoked Article 4 of NATO.

The Ukrainian military is likely to be defeated this week (not before seriously bloodying Russia's nose), there will likely be an insurgency that follows that may be successful in causing Russia to withdraw. But I would not be surprised war broke out in Europe more broadly. The generally peaceful post WWII order is over I'm afraid. And Xi Jinping is probably looking at the fecklessness of the West and and taking notes.

yeah, its developing thing / moving target.

=================

On one hand, I hope Putin does kind of go ahead with the full-scale(-ish) war thing.
Only because I HOPE the world's response would/could put and end to this type of silly bullshit...

.... as opposed to Putin taking small bites here or there every decade or so.
Because the latter is just gonna be more sanctions and diplomacy-based bullshit answers.

Lets just get it over with, shall we? Sucks to be a Ukrainese right now, but shit gonna happen.

[mbasic]

Ruble and the MeowMix doing well I see ...

(this is sarcasm btw)

[aurelius]

Russia was foolish enough to invade. Now Ukraine has to do their part.

[aurelius]

Ruble and the MeowMix doing well I see ...

No.

The Russian Ruble has tanked. It is now trading at an all-time low of 88 rubles to 1 US dollar.

The Russian stock market crashed.

The MOEX index plunged as much as 45% before rebounding to trade down 33%, while the RTS index — which is denominated in dollars — was down 38% at 8:25 a.m. ET. The crash wiped about $70 billion off the value of Russia’s biggest companies.

Looks like Western investors are abandoning Russian interests before heavy sanctions are applied.

[dw]

Minimizing the invasion seems like a Pravda move.

[aurelius]

Minimizing the invasion seems like a Pravda move.

I also thought it was...I will go with odd to be polite...to downplay Russia's invasion. "Well they haven't NUKED Ukraine so I don't understand all of the hysterics."

[DoctorWho]

https://twitter.com/Lawrence/status/1495844462630772738

Amazing take.

Exactly. And that is in the context of Trump's recent statement. I get not voting for Democrats. I don't understand anyone that supports or would vote for Trump. He is not playing for Team America.

Just to be clear (b/c text makes this hard): We agree Lawrence, the Dems and Trump are all idiots?

I see your point. It also seems to me to show how ridiculously siloed blue-checkmarks are -- unwilling or unable to see a counterargument. Sometimes it's bias (assuming in the case above) and sometimes just dishonesty. It's done real long-term damage (just my opinion).

Back on topic, I just assumed that Russia would invade the moderately pro-Russian regions and then leave once they were set up as kinda puppet states. Is it possible that the invasion (outside the SE regions with lots of Russian speakers) is to stop a counter-attack, rather than trying to topple the government?

[5hout]

https://twitter.com/JulianRoepcke/statu ... 78/photo/1

If accurate (is several hours old) does not look to support my theory of a thin/broad assault then fall back to control SE (Donbass/Crimea) Unless they pivot around Kiev this looks far more commensurate with an attack to seize everything east of the Dnieper + Kiev.

EDIT: Which isn't to say that is/will happen, just that I would not have expected as many or as much penetration in the North compared to the Southeast.

EDIT EDIT:



If I understand this map correctly their on the ground forces are within 30mi of Kiev

[dw]

So what do we think Pompeo is up to praising the invasion? Pure cynical political hackery trying to make the Biden administration look bad for taking an admittedly ineffectual anti-invasion position?

[5hout]

I see your point. It also seems to me to show how ridiculously siloed blue-checkmarks are -- unwilling or unable to see a counterargument. Sometimes it's bias (assuming in the case above) and sometimes just dishonesty. It's done real long-term damage (just my opinion).

A friend of mine (fairly strong old school lefty) said "as if being a career KGB killer and then being the fascistic dictator of one of the world's most powerful countries makes you less knowledgeable than a kid with a master's degree who spent a month backpacking around Europe". It reflects (imo) an unserious approach to the world.

EDIT: https://maphub.net/Cen4infoRes/russian-ukraine-monitor

EDIT: The above map is interesting, paints a very different pictures than other maps (when you remove data from 23 and before)
EDIT:
movements from 23rd on:


Per reports from twitter tanks/infantry fighting along E105 Meltipool (road connecting Crimea to Donbass)

[DoctorWho]

That site makes it look less like a full scale invasion and more like hitting Ukraine's military while kinda invading a couple of places that might be peeled off. That's about the best that can be hoped for.

[5hout]

That site makes it look less like a full scale invasion and more like hitting Ukraine's military while kinda invading a couple of places that might be peeled off. That's about the best that can be hoped for.

Agree on hope, I'm (supposedly working) trying to figure out what's actually happening. Best case scenario is strong feint towards Kiev using paratroopers supported by artillery and rockets to either take Kiev or hold just outside of it while Russia collects the entire south. Reports indicate Russian forces currently fighting in Mariupol and Melitopol, possibly with flanking units attempting to move around. This is 86 miles of 186 between Crimea and mainland Russia already captured.

Very unclear the depth/composition of N/NE forces, apart from paratroopers at airport outside Kiev and extremely heavy missile bombardment occupying Ukrain forces in Kiev and NE border towns. Per some random link on twitter that I can't find again guy says Russia does not have enough troops close by to occupy length of Dnieper and East, which (this may be confirmation bias) goes to "feint N to prevent Ukraine from focusing on stopping up Russia linking Crimea to "breakaway" regions + mainland Russia, with chance that Kiev falls and you can headshot Ukraine gov and install puppet"

If Mariupol/Melitopol/Berdyans'k fall Russia will have direct road access through S Ukraine, and possibly control (if they seize Kherson) Dnieper access into Black Sea, that seems "enough" for anyone to digest. As depressing as it is I think the best outcome left is Kiev holds and the S falls tomorrow.

EDIT: Per some maps/reports RUS across river in Kherson. Paratrooper incursion near Kiev reported destroyed, alive, now reported destroyed again. 10k rifles issued to civilians in Kiev in last few hours (seems like that should have been done days ago, or not at all. RUS possibly 50-80% of the distance to Kiev. Is the meta-strat to provoke harsher sanctions or NATO action via convincing RUS to directly bomb civilians in Kiev? (RUS 100% has been hitting civilian nonC&C targets alongside military the entire time, but twitter posting about about this seems ill-advised).

EDIT: Kherson seems fallen, RUS troops outside Mykolaiv 30m W. If they hold their lines and consolidate will have entire S strip of Ukraine to outskirts of Odessa. IIRC there is a Moldovan separatist movement that is Pro-RUS. Logging off work, and therefore off twitter. Good luck Ukraine. Report of a counter offensive in Kherson and that airport outside Kiev is actually destroyed. Offense in the N/NE stalled (either by design or not). If my initial thoughts were correct should see Kiev hold, lots of fighting around Sumy/Kharkiv and continued Russian push in the S.

[dw]

And this is the guy Trump and Trumpists admire. Pretty sickening.