The Russia vs Ukraine show

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mbasic
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Re: The Russia vs Ukraine show

#1081

Post by mbasic » Tue Oct 11, 2022 4:54 am

quikky wrote: Mon Oct 10, 2022 3:18 pm What's amazing is that after the Kerch bridge attack, Putin condemned it as an act of terrorism. What a fucking clown.
I feel there's some good SS/BBM memes that could be crafted with that bridge being blown up.

Tired of the terrorist talk.
Everyone is a terrorist these days.

Image


------------------

EDIT: 2nd round/day of bombing to Ukrainian civilian infrastructure today it seems.


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Re: The Russia vs Ukraine show

#1083

Post by quikky » Fri Oct 14, 2022 5:28 pm


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Re: The Russia vs Ukraine show

#1084

Post by omaniphil » Fri Oct 14, 2022 5:49 pm

quikky wrote: Fri Oct 14, 2022 5:28 pm This is pretty good: https://www.foreignaffairs.com/central- ... viet-order
That was good. Also, in keeping with that article, you should watch this video of the President of Tajikistan talking to Putin. It's really remarkable - I worked in Tajikistan for a while a decade and a half ago, and all I ever saw was Rahmon being obsequious around any Russian dignitary. There's a real change in the air. Blood is in the water.


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Re: The Russia vs Ukraine show

#1085

Post by quikky » Fri Oct 14, 2022 8:51 pm

omaniphil wrote: Fri Oct 14, 2022 5:49 pm
quikky wrote: Fri Oct 14, 2022 5:28 pm This is pretty good: https://www.foreignaffairs.com/central- ... viet-order
That was good. Also, in keeping with that article, you should watch this video of the President of Tajikistan talking to Putin. It's really remarkable - I worked in Tajikistan for a while a decade and a half ago, and all I ever saw was Rahmon being obsequious around any Russian dignitary. There's a real change in the air. Blood is in the water.

Oh yeah, that's another good one. There are so many examples now of how the attitudes towards Putin have changed. It's actually amazing. I mean even within Ukraine, Zelensky back in March was asking Putin to talk to him man to man and try and end the war. Have you seen Zelensky's latest about that? He said he will talk to Russia's president... But not the current one. Flat out said he's done with Putin. This could have only been imagined in an alternate reality even 6 months ago.

Incredible shift in world politics.

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Re: The Russia vs Ukraine show

#1086

Post by mikeylikey » Mon Oct 17, 2022 9:57 am

Hiphopapotamus wrote: Mon Oct 10, 2022 2:14 pm
mbasic wrote: Mon Oct 10, 2022 2:00 pm Russian still has a functioning airforce I suppose (to be able to hit a bunch civilian targets in Kyiv, etc)
I think Russia has something like 1,200 fixed wing aircraft and have lost 40/50 or so? Numbers* haven't really been a problem, they just haven't been able to operate in defended airspace without getting immediately shot down so they've mostly been lobbing standoff munitions from Russian or Belarusian airspace.

I'm curious how much this recent tantrum has further depleted their stocks of cruise missiles, of which they had already burned a good amount.

*Number of aircraft, that is. Numbers of competent pilots may be another matter..
A famous US naval aviator said, it's not the plane it's the pilot.

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Re: The Russia vs Ukraine show

#1087

Post by mbasic » Tue Oct 18, 2022 7:56 am

mikeylikey wrote: Mon Oct 17, 2022 9:57 am
Hiphopapotamus wrote: Mon Oct 10, 2022 2:14 pm
mbasic wrote: Mon Oct 10, 2022 2:00 pm Russian still has a functioning airforce I suppose (to be able to hit a bunch civilian targets in Kyiv, etc)
I think Russia has something like 1,200 fixed wing aircraft and have lost 40/50 or so? Numbers* haven't really been a problem, they just haven't been able to operate in defended airspace without getting immediately shot down so they've mostly been lobbing standoff munitions from Russian or Belarusian airspace.

I'm curious how much this recent tantrum has further depleted their stocks of cruise missiles, of which they had already burned a good amount.

*Number of aircraft, that is. Numbers of competent pilots may be another matter..
A famous US naval aviator said, it's not the plane it's the pilot.
IDK about that in this case (case being russia's awesome airforce)

Theses guy were just poking along with a newer full loaded SU-34 and had to punch out for 'reasons' over RUS airspace?

Its prolly "itz da plain ! da plain!"

Image





Plausible causes:
- Smoking accident
- Ukrainian AA inside RUS airspace
- Forgot to top off fuel tanks
- something-NATO-something

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Re: The Russia vs Ukraine show

#1088

Post by quikky » Tue Nov 08, 2022 9:18 pm

This is interesting and kind of funny and sad: https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/u ... erial-war/

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Re: The Russia vs Ukraine show

#1089

Post by mbasic » Thu Nov 10, 2022 5:47 am


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Re: The Russia vs Ukraine show

#1090

Post by BostonRugger » Thu Nov 10, 2022 6:48 am

The Atlantic Council should be forcibly dissolved

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Re: The Russia vs Ukraine show

#1091

Post by omaniphil » Thu Nov 10, 2022 6:54 am

BostonRugger wrote: Thu Nov 10, 2022 6:48 am The Atlantic Council should be forcibly dissolved
Why?

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Re: The Russia vs Ukraine show

#1092

Post by BostonRugger » Thu Nov 10, 2022 8:48 am

omaniphil wrote: Thu Nov 10, 2022 6:54 am
BostonRugger wrote: Thu Nov 10, 2022 6:48 am The Atlantic Council should be forcibly dissolved
Why?


Strong opinion bc in the back of my mind somewhere I conflate them (somewhat rightly) with the Council on Foreign Relations. Still fine with them being disbanded forcefully. Staffed by people who hop back and forth between there and roles at State Dept, they exist to carry out the agenda of one while under the non-governmental banner of the other. These days AC also has a role within the gov/ngo/tech opinion making apparatus that uses "anti-misinformation" as a cover.

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Re: The Russia vs Ukraine show

#1093

Post by dw » Thu Nov 10, 2022 12:46 pm

BostonRugger wrote: Thu Nov 10, 2022 8:48 am
omaniphil wrote: Thu Nov 10, 2022 6:54 am
BostonRugger wrote: Thu Nov 10, 2022 6:48 am The Atlantic Council should be forcibly dissolved
Why?


Strong opinion bc in the back of my mind somewhere I conflate them (somewhat rightly) with the Council on Foreign Relations. Still fine with them being disbanded forcefully. Staffed by people who hop back and forth between there and roles at State Dept, they exist to carry out the agenda of one while under the non-governmental banner of the other. These days AC also has a role within the gov/ngo/tech opinion making apparatus that uses "anti-misinformation" as a cover.

And the CIA uses the State Department to give diplomatic cover to spies. These aren't inherently bad things.

Maybe the missing premise is that the US government is evil.

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Re: The Russia vs Ukraine show

#1094

Post by quikky » Sat Nov 12, 2022 5:36 am

Well, Kherson is officially under Ukrainian control. This was the only major city captured by Russia in the war.

Wonder, what's next?

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Re: The Russia vs Ukraine show

#1095

Post by Hardartery » Sat Nov 12, 2022 12:00 pm

quikky wrote: Sat Nov 12, 2022 5:36 am Well, Kherson is officially under Ukrainian control. This was the only major city captured by Russia in the war.

Wonder, what's next?
That TV thing he Russians did just before the withdrawal was weird as hell. I don't know what they're up to, but something is a little fishy.

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Re: The Russia vs Ukraine show

#1096

Post by dw » Sat Nov 12, 2022 1:16 pm

quikky wrote: Sat Nov 12, 2022 5:36 am Well, Kherson is officially under Ukrainian control. This was the only major city captured by Russia in the war.

Wonder, what's next?

Time for the deft and nimble Russian guerilla forces to take to the countryside and harass the Ukrainian military juggernaut like a swarm of gadflies.

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Re: The Russia vs Ukraine show

#1097

Post by ChasingCurls69 » Sat Nov 12, 2022 5:50 pm

Hardartery wrote: Sat Nov 12, 2022 12:00 pm
quikky wrote: Sat Nov 12, 2022 5:36 am Well, Kherson is officially under Ukrainian control. This was the only major city captured by Russia in the war.

Wonder, what's next?
That TV thing he Russians did just before the withdrawal was weird as hell. I don't know what they're up to, but something is a little fishy.
My hot take is they retreated so they could nuke the city.

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Re: The Russia vs Ukraine show

#1098

Post by mikeylikey » Tue Nov 15, 2022 12:54 pm

dw wrote: Tue Aug 30, 2022 11:10 am
mikeylikey wrote: Tue Aug 30, 2022 10:46 am
dw wrote: Tue Aug 30, 2022 8:52 am
mikeylikey wrote: Tue Aug 30, 2022 7:53 am
hsilman wrote: Tue Aug 30, 2022 7:38 am Could get very interesting if opposition groups in the places Russia is being forced to withdraw troops are social democratic leaning. What does America do
Stay out of it and let people work out their own destiny?



LOL, I kid, I kid.

You're against our military assistance to Ukraine then I presume?
I am extremely skeptical that increasing the amount of violence in any given situation can create less net suffering. The Ukraine situation, I THINK, is probably a counterexample. An extremely rare counterexample which in no way diminishes my confidence in non-intervention as the correct default position.

In the long run if it does turn out to have been the right thing to do I fear that will incorrectly encourage us to do so in the many far more typical future cases where it will only tend to make things worse.

"Increasing the amount of violence" is an odd formulation, because it treats violence as a homogeneous and additive quantity when in fact it is neither. Is self-defense "increasing violence"? Is deterrence by violence decreasing violence? Is successful imperialism like the Pax Romana increasing or decreasing violence?

And for that matter there are many forms of suffering, some owing more to peace than war.
mikeylikey wrote: Wed Aug 31, 2022 5:31 am
dw wrote: Tue Aug 30, 2022 11:10 am

"Increasing the amount of violence" is an odd formulation, because it treats violence as a homogeneous and additive quantity
I know. That was intentional. Other things being equal, sending guns, troops, intelligence, money, etc. to one or both parties to a war increases the amount of violence right now. Obviously, we wouldn't do it if we didn't believe there would be some ultimate benefit later on.

Are there lots of various dynamics, 2nd order, 3rd order etc consequences to consider? Yes that's kindof my point.

If we look at the most closely analogous situations, historically, America's interventions in modern wars (say post WWII) have neither improved our situation nor the people we were trying to help.

As I said, Ukraine looks like it is an exception to that pattern, and right now, realizing it's still ongoing and we don't know the eventual outcome, I agree with what we're doing to help them.

Then again, we think that every time or we wouldn't do it.
And this is why I was skeptical:

https://www.cnbc.com/2022/11/15/us-offi ... ng-2-.html

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Re: The Russia vs Ukraine show

#1099

Post by Hardartery » Tue Nov 15, 2022 1:51 pm

Russian missile strike in Poland, unofficially two killed. Source of strike is "Unconfirmed". This could get ugly fast.

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Re: The Russia vs Ukraine show

#1100

Post by mbasic » Tue Nov 15, 2022 2:38 pm

Hardartery wrote: Tue Nov 15, 2022 1:51 pm Russian missile strike in Poland, unofficially two killed. Source of strike is "Unconfirmed". This could get ugly fast.

IIRC, the Iraqis et al tried to draw the Jews into one of the Gulf Conflicts by launching some scuds into Israel .... or am I misremembering?
Was a big ole' nothing-burger.

For all we know (how this shitshow has been going for RUS) they were simply defective cruise missiles, or mis-programmed, lost their way, etc

Even if it were intentional, I doubt anything will come of this.


EDIT: The UN is looking into it.

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