The Russia vs Ukraine show

This is the polite off topic forum. If you’re looking to talk smack and spew nonsense, keep moving along.

Moderators: mgil, chromoly

Post Reply
User avatar
SnakePlissken
Registered User
Posts: 876
Joined: Mon Dec 28, 2020 9:22 am
Age: 29

Re: The Russia vs Ukraine show

#1021

Post by SnakePlissken » Wed Sep 28, 2022 8:19 am

omaniphil wrote: Wed Sep 28, 2022 7:03 am Guys, Russia clearly did it.
Why would this make sense though?

User avatar
mbasic
Registered User
Posts: 9331
Joined: Fri Sep 15, 2017 9:06 am
Age: 104

Re: The Russia vs Ukraine show

#1022

Post by mbasic » Wed Sep 28, 2022 8:42 am

SnakePlissken wrote: Wed Sep 28, 2022 8:19 am
omaniphil wrote: Wed Sep 28, 2022 7:03 am Guys, Russia clearly did it.
Why would this make sense though?
same feels here. Makes no sense. I guess drive up prices just before winter to get some countries to buckle to russia .... but....the russian-money-now situation?

But I don't see the USA having the balls to covertly blow up an undersea pipeline.

Unless OPEC terrorists or something?

Fuck. Someone needs to off putin asap.

User avatar
SnakePlissken
Registered User
Posts: 876
Joined: Mon Dec 28, 2020 9:22 am
Age: 29

Re: The Russia vs Ukraine show

#1023

Post by SnakePlissken » Wed Sep 28, 2022 9:00 am

mbasic wrote: Wed Sep 28, 2022 8:42 am
SnakePlissken wrote: Wed Sep 28, 2022 8:19 am
omaniphil wrote: Wed Sep 28, 2022 7:03 am Guys, Russia clearly did it.
Why would this make sense though?
same feels here. Makes no sense. I guess drive up prices just before winter to get some countries to buckle to russia .... but....the russian-money-now situation?

But I don't see the USA having the balls to covertly blow up an undersea pipeline.

Unless OPEC terrorists or something?

Fuck. Someone needs to off putin asap.
I wouldn't put anything past the US government on something like that. We (the US leadership) act like the most welcoming and accepting people that have ever walked God's Green Earth, but in reality they'll do anything that benefits them and their special interest groups.

User avatar
omaniphil
Registered User
Posts: 1889
Joined: Sat Sep 16, 2017 10:41 pm
Location: Cleveland, OH
Age: 41

Re: The Russia vs Ukraine show

#1024

Post by omaniphil » Wed Sep 28, 2022 9:12 am

SnakePlissken wrote: Wed Sep 28, 2022 8:19 am
omaniphil wrote: Wed Sep 28, 2022 7:03 am Guys, Russia clearly did it.
Why would this make sense though?
1) Russia is trying to stop EU countries from supporting Ukraine, as that is the only chance they have of not getting their asses handed to them in Ukraine.
2) Russia believes that Europe is completely reliant on Russian gas.
3) Russia believes that destroying the pipelines will cause panic in EU, thereby causing government to falter in their support of Ukraine.
4) Norway has greatly increased gas supply to EU since Russia invaded Ukraine. Norway probably has capacity to increase supply further, totally supplanting Russia. Just need to build additional pipelines across Denmark and Baltic Sea
5) Blowing up Nordstream is a demonstration that Norwegian pipes are not safe.

mbasic wrote: Wed Sep 28, 2022 6:00 am There's some shit going around it was the USA ...
The only people suggesting this are Tucker Carlson adjacent people and the Tankies. They were probably told by their Russian handlers to bring this up. Taking Tucker and the Tankies seriously is a recipe for stupidity.

Cellist
Registered User
Posts: 887
Joined: Sat Nov 18, 2017 11:55 am

Re: The Russia vs Ukraine show

#1025

Post by Cellist » Wed Sep 28, 2022 9:24 am

omaniphil wrote: Wed Sep 28, 2022 9:12 am
SnakePlissken wrote: Wed Sep 28, 2022 8:19 am
omaniphil wrote: Wed Sep 28, 2022 7:03 am Guys, Russia clearly did it.
Why would this make sense though?
1) Russia is trying to stop EU countries from supporting Ukraine, as that is the only chance they have of not getting their asses handed to them in Ukraine.
2) Russia believes that Europe is completely reliant on Russian gas.
3) Russia believes that destroying the pipelines will cause panic in EU, thereby causing government to falter in their support of Ukraine.
4) Norway has greatly increased gas supply to EU since Russia invaded Ukraine. Norway probably has capacity to increase supply further, totally supplanting Russia. Just need to build additional pipelines across Denmark and Baltic Sea
5) Blowing up Nordstream is a demonstration that Norwegian pipes are not safe.

mbasic wrote: Wed Sep 28, 2022 6:00 am There's some shit going around it was the USA ...
The only people suggesting this are Tucker Carlson adjacent people and the Tankies. They were probably told by their Russian handlers to bring this up. Taking Tucker and the Tankies seriously is a recipe for stupidity.
vg Omni

besides, have you never seen a Bond film. The villain always commits a smaller act to show their readiness for global destruction. Why did Tony Soprano blow up Vesuvio's?

User avatar
SnakePlissken
Registered User
Posts: 876
Joined: Mon Dec 28, 2020 9:22 am
Age: 29

Re: The Russia vs Ukraine show

#1026

Post by SnakePlissken » Wed Sep 28, 2022 9:37 am

omaniphil wrote: Wed Sep 28, 2022 9:12 am
SnakePlissken wrote: Wed Sep 28, 2022 8:19 am
omaniphil wrote: Wed Sep 28, 2022 7:03 am Guys, Russia clearly did it.
Why would this make sense though?
1) Russia is trying to stop EU countries from supporting Ukraine, as that is the only chance they have of not getting their asses handed to them in Ukraine.
2) Russia believes that Europe is completely reliant on Russian gas.
3) Russia believes that destroying the pipelines will cause panic in EU, thereby causing government to falter in their support of Ukraine.
4) Norway has greatly increased gas supply to EU since Russia invaded Ukraine. Norway probably has capacity to increase supply further, totally supplanting Russia. Just need to build additional pipelines across Denmark and Baltic Sea
5) Blowing up Nordstream is a demonstration that Norwegian pipes are not safe.
1) Russia is trying to stop EU countries from supporting Ukraine, as that is the only chance they have of not getting their asses handed to them in Ukraine.
I don't know how blowing up a gas line that was shut off indefinitley months ago will do anything to change this
2) Russia believes that Europe is completely reliant on Russian gas.
Europe started scrambling for other exporters as soon as the Ukraine war started which was over 6 months ago and the Russians stopped pumping gas due to the sanctions when the war started. Blowing up an unused pipeline now doesn't change the gas supply situation.
3) Russia believes that destroying the pipelines will cause panic in EU, thereby causing government to falter in their support of Ukraine.
He thought NATO was weak and would be broken by the Ukraine invasion and it turned out opposite. Once again Europe and the UK have already started getting gas elsewhere
4) Norway has greatly increased gas supply to EU since Russia invaded Ukraine. Norway probably has capacity to increase supply further, totally supplanting Russia. Just need to build additional pipelines across Denmark and Baltic Sea
This is true, but what does blowing up their own property do to stop Norway from supplying Europe?
5) Blowing up Nordstream is a demonstration that Norwegian pipes are not safe.
Hypothetically, if Russia blew up their own pipeline and the rest of the world thought it was an accident and decided to stop using pipelines to deliver gas, then maybe? Isn't this a stretch?

Not trying to say the US did it, but that Russia doing it doesn't make much sense. By the pipeline being damaged they can't even use it as a bargaining chip.

User avatar
aurelius
Grade A Asshole
Posts: 4571
Joined: Fri Sep 15, 2017 10:14 am
Location: Dallas
Age: 43

Re: The Russia vs Ukraine show

#1027

Post by aurelius » Wed Sep 28, 2022 10:36 am

No one is taking Putin seriously. How many ‘lines in the sand’ has Putin drawn which NATO and Allie’s have essentially laughed at?

Putin is attempting to create a ‘crossing the Rubicon’ moment with the sabotaging of the pipelines, initiating the draft, and the scam annexation of territories in UKR. All in a bid to end Western support. The football equivalent of running the no huddle, two-minute hurry up offense in the 2nd quarter because you are down 3 scores against a team with a terrific pass rush.

Of course Russia’s continued aggression has had the opposite effect as NATO has stepped up support for UKR with even more advanced weaponry which will be delivered in the coming months. Just in time to wipe out the Untrained, ill-equipped Russian draftees.

Fundamentally Russia misunderstands the West. They expect the West to backdown to a show of strength. The infamous ‘escalate to deescalate’ doctrine. This goes against the entirety of Western history but here we are playing nuclear Russian roulette.
Last edited by aurelius on Wed Sep 28, 2022 10:45 am, edited 3 times in total.

User avatar
omaniphil
Registered User
Posts: 1889
Joined: Sat Sep 16, 2017 10:41 pm
Location: Cleveland, OH
Age: 41

Re: The Russia vs Ukraine show

#1028

Post by omaniphil » Wed Sep 28, 2022 10:43 am

SnakePlissken wrote: Wed Sep 28, 2022 9:37 am I don't know how blowing up a gas line that was shut off indefinitley months ago will do anything to change this
...
Europe started scrambling for other exporters as soon as the Ukraine war started which was over 6 months ago and the Russians stopped pumping gas due to the sanctions when the war started. Blowing up an unused pipeline now doesn't change the gas supply situation.
Well, this has been the result. Gas prices spike up on the 26th when the explosions happened.
https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/eu-natural-gas
Image

I agree that for a rational actor, this doesn't quite make sense, but Russia is clearly not rational, at least in the way we typically think of such things.

User avatar
SnakePlissken
Registered User
Posts: 876
Joined: Mon Dec 28, 2020 9:22 am
Age: 29

Re: The Russia vs Ukraine show

#1029

Post by SnakePlissken » Wed Sep 28, 2022 11:04 am

omaniphil wrote: Wed Sep 28, 2022 10:43 am
SnakePlissken wrote: Wed Sep 28, 2022 9:37 am I don't know how blowing up a gas line that was shut off indefinitley months ago will do anything to change this
...
Europe started scrambling for other exporters as soon as the Ukraine war started which was over 6 months ago and the Russians stopped pumping gas due to the sanctions when the war started. Blowing up an unused pipeline now doesn't change the gas supply situation.
Well, this has been the result. Gas prices spike up on the 26th when the explosions happened.
https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/eu-natural-gas
Image

I agree that for a rational actor, this doesn't quite make sense, but Russia is clearly not rational, at least in the way we typically think of such things.
If you look back 2 years, natural gas has been going higher and higher since the end of 2021 before Ukraine even happened. It's exacerbated the prices, but it's also a volatile market like oil that goes up or down when someone sneezes the wrong direction. It's speculators that are making the price fluctuate on a daily basis based on what the headlines read. At the end of the day, it hasn't been moving gas for months so on a global basis this hasn't affected global or local supply at all. It only affects future potential distribution of gas (hence these are Futures prices going up) since its fate has been sealed for the next few years.

With all that said, I think the most likely hypothesis would be Putin just losing his mind. He's a tactician though so if he authorized it he's playing 4D chess or maybe the rumor that he has cancer is true and his brain has been significantly altered by it; I feel like we would've seen nuclear strikes already if he was in that state of mind.

If I were him, I would want as many cards on the table as possible and destroying your own revenue stream that your country owns would seem to eliminate a good token to the EU in letting them not freeze over the winter in exchange for a ceasefire and allowing Eastern Ukraine to become part of Russia. Either way, someone needs to off the dude already.

Hiphopapotamus
Registered User
Posts: 1205
Joined: Mon Sep 25, 2017 1:16 pm
Age: 57

Re: The Russia vs Ukraine show

#1030

Post by Hiphopapotamus » Wed Sep 28, 2022 1:58 pm

SnakePlissken wrote: Wed Sep 28, 2022 11:04 am
omaniphil wrote: Wed Sep 28, 2022 10:43 am
SnakePlissken wrote: Wed Sep 28, 2022 9:37 am I don't know how blowing up a gas line that was shut off indefinitley months ago will do anything to change this
...
Europe started scrambling for other exporters as soon as the Ukraine war started which was over 6 months ago and the Russians stopped pumping gas due to the sanctions when the war started. Blowing up an unused pipeline now doesn't change the gas supply situation.
Well, this has been the result. Gas prices spike up on the 26th when the explosions happened.
https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/eu-natural-gas
Image

I agree that for a rational actor, this doesn't quite make sense, but Russia is clearly not rational, at least in the way we typically think of such things.
If you look back 2 years, natural gas has been going higher and higher since the end of 2021 before Ukraine even happened. It's exacerbated the prices, but it's also a volatile market like oil that goes up or down when someone sneezes the wrong direction. It's speculators that are making the price fluctuate on a daily basis based on what the headlines read. At the end of the day, it hasn't been moving gas for months so on a global basis this hasn't affected global or local supply at all. It only affects future potential distribution of gas (hence these are Futures prices going up) since its fate has been sealed for the next few years.

With all that said, I think the most likely hypothesis would be Putin just losing his mind. He's a tactician though so if he authorized it he's playing 4D chess or maybe the rumor that he has cancer is true and his brain has been significantly altered by it; I feel like we would've seen nuclear strikes already if he was in that state of mind.

If I were him, I would want as many cards on the table as possible and destroying your own revenue stream that your country owns would seem to eliminate a good token to the EU in letting them not freeze over the winter in exchange for a ceasefire and allowing Eastern Ukraine to become part of Russia. Either way, someone needs to off the dude already.
Personally, I don't think Putin is a tactician so much as he's a gambler. And he really only has one move: continue to raise the stakes until his opponent folds. It's worked for him all his life, but now he's against an opponent who keeps calling him. All he can think to do is to keep raising in the hopes that NATO decides it's all too scary and they'd just rather hit the slots for a few hours.

As for this pipeline, I'm not really sure who would benefit from doing this so maybe, being crap Russian workmanship, it actually did just break?

User avatar
omaniphil
Registered User
Posts: 1889
Joined: Sat Sep 16, 2017 10:41 pm
Location: Cleveland, OH
Age: 41

Re: The Russia vs Ukraine show

#1031

Post by omaniphil » Wed Sep 28, 2022 2:43 pm

I heard a theory that Putin blowing the pipeline doesn't help Russia as much as it helps Putin.

Because there's no way of getting gas to Europe now, it takes away the incentive of conducting a coup against Putin in order to get back in the good graces of Europe by turning the flow back on.

User avatar
quikky
Registered User
Posts: 1424
Joined: Mon Feb 19, 2018 7:42 am

Re: The Russia vs Ukraine show

#1032

Post by quikky » Wed Sep 28, 2022 3:31 pm

omaniphil wrote: Wed Sep 28, 2022 2:43 pm I heard a theory that Putin blowing the pipeline doesn't help Russia as much as it helps Putin.

Because there's no way of getting gas to Europe now, it takes away the incentive of conducting a coup against Putin in order to get back in the good graces of Europe by turning the flow back on.
A theory in the same ballpark I heard is that the reason for mobilization is to reduce the chances of an uprising. Many will leave, and those deployed are a lot less likely to revolt once they're on the front lines.

We could be watching Russia turn into a second North Korea, by isolating itself and completely shutting down a way back, as well as the flushing out of any possible opposition so the Putin regime can stay in power.

Hiphopapotamus
Registered User
Posts: 1205
Joined: Mon Sep 25, 2017 1:16 pm
Age: 57

Re: The Russia vs Ukraine show

#1033

Post by Hiphopapotamus » Wed Sep 28, 2022 3:40 pm

quikky wrote: Wed Sep 28, 2022 3:31 pm
omaniphil wrote: Wed Sep 28, 2022 2:43 pm I heard a theory that Putin blowing the pipeline doesn't help Russia as much as it helps Putin.

Because there's no way of getting gas to Europe now, it takes away the incentive of conducting a coup against Putin in order to get back in the good graces of Europe by turning the flow back on.
A theory in the same ballpark I heard is that the reason for mobilization is to reduce the chances of an uprising. Many will leave, and those deployed are a lot less likely to revolt once they're on the front lines.

We could be watching Russia turn into a second North Korea, by isolating itself and completely shutting down a way back, as well as the flushing out of any possible opposition so the Putin regime can stay in power.
Hey, don't drag our good name into this shitshow!

Image

User avatar
SnakePlissken
Registered User
Posts: 876
Joined: Mon Dec 28, 2020 9:22 am
Age: 29

Re: The Russia vs Ukraine show

#1034

Post by SnakePlissken » Wed Sep 28, 2022 4:23 pm

omaniphil wrote: Wed Sep 28, 2022 2:43 pm I heard a theory that Putin blowing the pipeline doesn't help Russia as much as it helps Putin.

Because there's no way of getting gas to Europe now, it takes away the incentive of conducting a coup against Putin in order to get back in the good graces of Europe by turning the flow back on.
This is actually a really good hypothesis for why he may have done it.

@Hiphopapotamus makes a good point too that Putin does like taking large risks. There's a pretty notorious interview of him not that long ago where he said "those who don't take risks, don't drink champagne." Kinda encapsulates him.

User avatar
quikky
Registered User
Posts: 1424
Joined: Mon Feb 19, 2018 7:42 am

Re: The Russia vs Ukraine show

#1035

Post by quikky » Wed Sep 28, 2022 5:43 pm

Hiphopapotamus wrote: Wed Sep 28, 2022 3:40 pm
quikky wrote: Wed Sep 28, 2022 3:31 pm
omaniphil wrote: Wed Sep 28, 2022 2:43 pm I heard a theory that Putin blowing the pipeline doesn't help Russia as much as it helps Putin.

Because there's no way of getting gas to Europe now, it takes away the incentive of conducting a coup against Putin in order to get back in the good graces of Europe by turning the flow back on.
A theory in the same ballpark I heard is that the reason for mobilization is to reduce the chances of an uprising. Many will leave, and those deployed are a lot less likely to revolt once they're on the front lines.

We could be watching Russia turn into a second North Korea, by isolating itself and completely shutting down a way back, as well as the flushing out of any possible opposition so the Putin regime can stay in power.
Hey, don't drag our good name into this shitshow!

Image
Looks like the guy right behind Kim is thinking "I could just point this at the back of his head and pull the trigger... I could end this shit right now...". Too bad the guns must have surely had no ammo in them.

User avatar
mbasic
Registered User
Posts: 9331
Joined: Fri Sep 15, 2017 9:06 am
Age: 104

Re: The Russia vs Ukraine show

#1036

Post by mbasic » Thu Sep 29, 2022 4:24 am

quikky wrote: Wed Sep 28, 2022 5:43 pm
Looks like the guy right behind Kim is thinking "I could just point this at the back of his head and pull the trigger... I could end this shit right now...". Too bad the guns must have surely had no ammo in them.
I'm sure its beyond that even: prob no firing pins in any of them ....

*Rust armorer sheds tear*

User avatar
hsilman
✓ Registered User
Posts: 2842
Joined: Fri Sep 15, 2017 8:31 am
Age: 39

Re: The Russia vs Ukraine show

#1037

Post by hsilman » Thu Sep 29, 2022 6:39 am

Some highlights from a Russian friend of a friend(she shared some of the txt conversation with me):

"Civil war in every family."
"Wives hiding husbands, mothers hiding sons"
"Black markets like back in the USSR"
"my parents have no clue, none of this is covered in the news"
"Whole country is brainwashed. They believe there is German army at their border and US too and these guys(draft) have to go save them."
"They think it's people with military experience going, not the guy next door."
"Official number is 300k, but I think it's over a million based on how many people we heard of going."
"Not only my parents, so many young people believe it too"(the propaganda)
"Everyone who is not in Moscow and educated"

Figure I'd share.

User avatar
mikeylikey
Rabble Rouser
Posts: 1339
Joined: Fri Sep 15, 2017 8:32 am
Location: Coconut Island
Age: 40

Re: The Russia vs Ukraine show

#1038

Post by mikeylikey » Thu Sep 29, 2022 6:39 am

mbasic wrote: Thu Sep 29, 2022 4:24 am
quikky wrote: Wed Sep 28, 2022 5:43 pm
Looks like the guy right behind Kim is thinking "I could just point this at the back of his head and pull the trigger... I could end this shit right now...". Too bad the guns must have surely had no ammo in them.
I'm sure its beyond that even: prob no firing pins in any of them ....

*Rust armorer sheds tear*
Communist peasant walks five miles to bread depot, waits in line all day, and when he gets up to the counter they are all out of bread. "I have had it! This is third time this week!" he says, "Communism has failed us! I wish we were capitalist like USA." Well, a soldier points a gun at him and says "Comrade, you had better be watching your tongue. Now go home and don't let me hear you talking like that again." Man goes home, wife sees him empty handed and says "Oh no, they are out of bread again?" Man says "Is worse than that - they're out of bullets too."

User avatar
quikky
Registered User
Posts: 1424
Joined: Mon Feb 19, 2018 7:42 am

Re: The Russia vs Ukraine show

#1039

Post by quikky » Thu Sep 29, 2022 11:13 am

hsilman wrote: Thu Sep 29, 2022 6:39 am Some highlights from a Russian friend of a friend(she shared some of the txt conversation with me):

"Civil war in every family."
"Wives hiding husbands, mothers hiding sons"
"Black markets like back in the USSR"
"my parents have no clue, none of this is covered in the news"
"Whole country is brainwashed. They believe there is German army at their border and US too and these guys(draft) have to go save them."
"They think it's people with military experience going, not the guy next door."
"Official number is 300k, but I think it's over a million based on how many people we heard of going."
"Not only my parents, so many young people believe it too"(the propaganda)
"Everyone who is not in Moscow and educated"

Figure I'd share.
This is quite true. I know someone that lives in Ukraine, whose dad lives in Russia. His dad called him after the war started, completely seriously telling him that he should not be concerned because Putin is just trying to defend Ukraine against Nazis.

User avatar
quikky
Registered User
Posts: 1424
Joined: Mon Feb 19, 2018 7:42 am

Re: The Russia vs Ukraine show

#1040

Post by quikky » Fri Sep 30, 2022 7:26 am

Putin announced the annexation today and now...

Zelensky announced Ukraine's application for accelerated NATO membership.

Well played, Ukraine.

Post Reply