MASS SHOOTING THREAD - Society has reached somekind of inflection point

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dw
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Re: MASS SHOOTING THREAD - Society has reached somekind of inflection point

#141

Post by dw » Wed Jul 06, 2022 9:51 am

mikeylikey wrote: Wed Jul 06, 2022 8:35 am
dw wrote: Wed Jul 06, 2022 7:32 am

What's the statistically minor aspect of the problem? I must have lost the thread of the argument.
Within margins acceptable for the discussion, "random stranger active shooter" as a subset of gun violence writ large is rougly comparable to arson as a subset of house fires or submerged drownings as a subset of automobile accidents.

The making of this observation has been, in this thread and in the ongoing public discourse, characterized has hair-splitting, pedantry, "quibbling over taxonomy" etc. I disagree, and I claim that it actually matters what the overwhelming nature of "mass shootings" is to the discussion of how to curb "mass shootings."

There have been what, 300 people killed by guns in Chicago this year, and a lot of those in multiple-victim shootings. But 6 rich white people in Highland Park get more attention than the other 300 combined.

Just look at the Breyer dissent in the recent SCOTUS case. He states the total number of "mass shootings" as x hundred per year, and then lists about 6 examples, all of which were "random stranger active shooter" events. This is, to me, as disingenuous as reporting that 40k people die in cars each year and then listing 6 examples, all of which are submerged drownings, to advocate for automatic inflating rafts being fitted to all cars.

I have a hard time coming up with a charitable interpretation of the fact that 90% of the political capital which is expended by gun control advocates focuses on a failure mode which cause 2% of the casualties.

OTOH if you counter some of the overwrought claims about black people living in a state of terror due to racist white shooters with some stats about the staggeringly higher risk to black people of black shooters you get accused of racism.

It's politics, can't let reality get in the way of a good story.

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Re: MASS SHOOTING THREAD - Society has reached somekind of inflection point

#142

Post by Allentown » Wed Jul 06, 2022 11:35 am

Usually people shoot people they know.
It takes racism or religion to murder strangers.

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Re: MASS SHOOTING THREAD - Society has reached somekind of inflection point

#143

Post by quikky » Wed Jul 06, 2022 11:49 am

Allentown wrote: Wed Jul 06, 2022 11:35 am It takes racism or religion to murder strangers.
Are you just saying that or are there stats that show this?

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Re: MASS SHOOTING THREAD - Society has reached somekind of inflection point

#144

Post by mikeylikey » Wed Jul 06, 2022 12:06 pm

quikky wrote: Wed Jul 06, 2022 11:49 am
Allentown wrote: Wed Jul 06, 2022 11:35 am It takes racism or religion to murder strangers.
Are you just saying that or are there stats that show this?
It's self-evident enough that I would argue the burden is on you to prove it wrong.

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Re: MASS SHOOTING THREAD - Society has reached somekind of inflection point

#145

Post by JonA » Wed Jul 06, 2022 12:25 pm

mikeylikey wrote: Wed Jul 06, 2022 12:06 pm
quikky wrote: Wed Jul 06, 2022 11:49 am
Allentown wrote: Wed Jul 06, 2022 11:35 am It takes racism or religion to murder strangers.
Are you just saying that or are there stats that show this?
It's self-evident enough that I would argue the burden is on you to prove it wrong.
Where would you put drug related homicides?

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Re: MASS SHOOTING THREAD - Society has reached somekind of inflection point

#146

Post by quikky » Wed Jul 06, 2022 12:26 pm

mikeylikey wrote: Wed Jul 06, 2022 12:06 pm
quikky wrote: Wed Jul 06, 2022 11:49 am
Allentown wrote: Wed Jul 06, 2022 11:35 am It takes racism or religion to murder strangers.
Are you just saying that or are there stats that show this?
It's self-evident enough that I would argue the burden is on you to prove it wrong.
<not sure if serious.gif>

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Re: MASS SHOOTING THREAD - Society has reached somekind of inflection point

#147

Post by cgeorg » Wed Jul 06, 2022 12:43 pm

JonA wrote: Wed Jul 06, 2022 12:25 pm
mikeylikey wrote: Wed Jul 06, 2022 12:06 pm
quikky wrote: Wed Jul 06, 2022 11:49 am
Allentown wrote: Wed Jul 06, 2022 11:35 am It takes racism or religion to murder strangers.
Are you just saying that or are there stats that show this?
It's self-evident enough that I would argue the burden is on you to prove it wrong.
Where would you put drug related homicides?
People shooting people that they know.

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Re: MASS SHOOTING THREAD - Society has reached somekind of inflection point

#148

Post by dw » Wed Jul 06, 2022 12:46 pm

Allentown wrote: Wed Jul 06, 2022 11:35 am Usually people shoot people they know.
It takes racism or religion to murder strangers.

This doesn't even make sense as written.

What about... murdering strangers that are of the same race and religion? Murdering people of unknown race and religion? Murder for hire?

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Re: MASS SHOOTING THREAD - Society has reached somekind of inflection point

#149

Post by JonA » Wed Jul 06, 2022 1:51 pm

mikeylikey wrote: Wed Jul 06, 2022 12:06 pm
quikky wrote: Wed Jul 06, 2022 11:49 am
Allentown wrote: Wed Jul 06, 2022 11:35 am It takes racism or religion to murder strangers.
Are you just saying that or are there stats that show this?
It's self-evident enough that I would argue the burden is on you to prove it wrong.
Well, I just googled and I'm now the expert everybody has been waiting for.

The FBI says there were 22 murders in 2020 classified as hate crimes (people murdered due to race/religion/ethnicity/sexual orientation/etc). https://www.fbi.gov/news/press-releases ... statistics

We are living in crazyville this year, so lets quadruple that up to 100 murders and just assume it's solely based on racism or religion.

The FBI also says that 9.8% of the 13000 murders in 2019 were by strangers https://ucr.fbi.gov/crime-in-the-u.s/20 ... d-homicide. So about 1200 total.

So if we assume every murder because of racism or religion was also by a stranger, we still get less than 10% (more realistically 2% to 5%) of stranger murders are motivated by racism or religion.

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Re: MASS SHOOTING THREAD - Society has reached somekind of inflection point

#150

Post by KyleSchuant » Tue Jul 12, 2022 2:57 am

Loathing is like love, you have to know someone pretty well to feel it.

Strangers will rarely piss you off as much as your own family and friends.

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Re: MASS SHOOTING THREAD - Society has reached somekind of inflection point

#151

Post by hector » Tue Jul 12, 2022 5:02 am

JonA wrote: Wed Jul 06, 2022 1:51 pm
mikeylikey wrote: Wed Jul 06, 2022 12:06 pm
quikky wrote: Wed Jul 06, 2022 11:49 am
Allentown wrote: Wed Jul 06, 2022 11:35 am It takes racism or religion to murder strangers.
Are you just saying that or are there stats that show this?
It's self-evident enough that I would argue the burden is on you to prove it wrong.
Well, I just googled and I'm now the expert everybody has been waiting for.

The FBI says there were 22 murders in 2020 classified as hate crimes (people murdered due to race/religion/ethnicity/sexual orientation/etc). https://www.fbi.gov/news/press-releases ... statistics

We are living in crazyville this year, so lets quadruple that up to 100 murders and just assume it's solely based on racism or religion.

The FBI also says that 9.8% of the 13000 murders in 2019 were by strangers https://ucr.fbi.gov/crime-in-the-u.s/20 ... d-homicide. So about 1200 total.

So if we assume every murder because of racism or religion was also by a stranger, we still get less than 10% (more realistically 2% to 5%) of stranger murders are motivated by racism or religion.
The second link you gave said 28 percent were killed by an acquaintance and additional 13 percent killed by a family member. So 41% is someone you know. This seems in keeping with the first part of what Allentown said.

As for racism and religion, you two might be talking past eachother. Racism could play a role in making a murderer more callous in their use of violence against others of a different race without a prosecutor managing to ever convict the racist of a hate crime.

As well, aren't the FBI stats all based on information voluntarily submitted by police departments? With large swaths of the country's LE choosing not to participate? (Not rhetorical, this is my understanding, could be wrong.) If you were a police chief and your city was filled with racist violence its possible you might not expend additional resources to tabulate the violence and report it to the FBI.

This article doesn't get at the murder/hate-crime stats, but it does show that there are issues getting police to share numbers with the FBI, even when compelled to do so by law.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/nation/2 ... orce-data/

I think "religion" and "racism" are broad terms that describe forces which can influence people in subtle ways. Ways that won't be demonstrable in court. If we were drinking beers and I had too many I might blather about how "capitalism" itself is a sort of de-facto religion and how a pervasive, low-level racism can exist within the most woke people that don't think they're racist at all. It's not an easy thing to tease out where these influences end and begin, but for sure they drive some unfortunate behavior.
Last edited by hector on Tue Jul 12, 2022 5:10 am, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: MASS SHOOTING THREAD - Society has reached somekind of inflection point

#152

Post by Renascent » Tue Jul 12, 2022 5:07 am

KyleSchuant wrote: Tue Jul 12, 2022 2:57 am Loathing is like love, you have to know someone pretty well to feel it.

Strangers will rarely piss you off as much as your own family and friends.
Strangers looking and living differently than others is often times enough to raise the ire of some people, even in the absence of violence.

Oh, and strangers with "undue" access to resources (in an egalitarian sense) can make some people feel as if their own station in life is under threat.
Last edited by Renascent on Tue Jul 12, 2022 5:26 am, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: MASS SHOOTING THREAD - Society has reached somekind of inflection point

#153

Post by Renascent » Tue Jul 12, 2022 5:11 am

hector wrote: Tue Jul 12, 2022 5:02 amAs well, aren't the FBI stats all based on information voluntarily submitted by police departments? With large swaths of the country's LE choosing not to participate?
That was my thought as well.

To go one further, at the risk of eliciting groans, I never thought much of the FBI's means of collecting data, nor their intended uses. Nor is there enough transparency there to warrant any sort of trust.

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Re: MASS SHOOTING THREAD - Society has reached somekind of inflection point

#154

Post by JonA » Tue Jul 12, 2022 7:05 am

hector wrote: Tue Jul 12, 2022 5:02 am
JonA wrote: Wed Jul 06, 2022 1:51 pm
mikeylikey wrote: Wed Jul 06, 2022 12:06 pm
quikky wrote: Wed Jul 06, 2022 11:49 am
Allentown wrote: Wed Jul 06, 2022 11:35 am It takes racism or religion to murder strangers.
Are you just saying that or are there stats that show this?
It's self-evident enough that I would argue the burden is on you to prove it wrong.
Well, I just googled and I'm now the expert everybody has been waiting for.

The FBI says there were 22 murders in 2020 classified as hate crimes (people murdered due to race/religion/ethnicity/sexual orientation/etc). https://www.fbi.gov/news/press-releases ... statistics

We are living in crazyville this year, so lets quadruple that up to 100 murders and just assume it's solely based on racism or religion.

The FBI also says that 9.8% of the 13000 murders in 2019 were by strangers https://ucr.fbi.gov/crime-in-the-u.s/20 ... d-homicide. So about 1200 total.

So if we assume every murder because of racism or religion was also by a stranger, we still get less than 10% (more realistically 2% to 5%) of stranger murders are motivated by racism or religion.
The second link you gave said 28 percent were killed by an acquaintance and additional 13 percent killed by a family member. So 41% is someone you know. This seems in keeping with the first part of what Allentown said.

As for racism and religion, you two might be talking past eachother. Racism could play a role in making a murderer more callous in their use of violence against others of a different race without a prosecutor managing to ever convict the racist of a hate crime.

As well, aren't the FBI stats all based on information voluntarily submitted by police departments? With large swaths of the country's LE choosing not to participate? (Not rhetorical, this is my understanding, could be wrong.) If you were a police chief and your city was filled with racist violence its possible you might not expend additional resources to tabulate the violence and report it to the FBI.

This article doesn't get at the murder/hate-crime stats, but it does show that there are issues getting police to share numbers with the FBI, even when compelled to do so by law.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/nation/2 ... orce-data/

I think "religion" and "racism" are broad terms that describe forces which can influence people in subtle ways. Ways that won't be demonstrable in court. If we were drinking beers and I had too many I might blather about how "capitalism" itself is a sort of de-facto religion and how a pervasive, low-level racism can exist within the most woke people that don't think they're racist at all. It's not an easy thing to tease out where these influences end and begin, but for sure they drive some unfortunate behavior.
I agree with most of what you said here. I was trying to make the point that it certainly isn't "self-evident" that it takes religion or racism to murder a stranger. I think it's certainly true for the first statement (that most people are murdered by people they know) and there are plenty of statistics to back that up. Even a casual google search will show that. I think "self-evident" describes that perfectly.

But for religious or racism motiviated murders, if the best we can say to support that is "There isn't much data and we don't think it's accurate and those terms are pretty general anyway", then it's not exactly "self evident", is it? That sounds more like confirmation bias.

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Re: MASS SHOOTING THREAD - Society has reached somekind of inflection point

#155

Post by JonA » Tue Jul 12, 2022 7:08 am

Renascent wrote: Tue Jul 12, 2022 5:11 am
hector wrote: Tue Jul 12, 2022 5:02 amAs well, aren't the FBI stats all based on information voluntarily submitted by police departments? With large swaths of the country's LE choosing not to participate?
That was my thought as well.

To go one further, at the risk of eliciting groans, I never thought much of the FBI's means of collecting data, nor their intended uses. Nor is there enough transparency there to warrant any sort of trust.
This is probably true. Does that also mean we shouldn't trust their stats that most people are murdered by friends and family? I'm assuming those stats are tabulated the same way as others are.

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Re: MASS SHOOTING THREAD - Society has reached somekind of inflection point

#156

Post by hector » Tue Jul 12, 2022 8:18 am

JonA wrote: Tue Jul 12, 2022 7:05 am
hector wrote: Tue Jul 12, 2022 5:02 am
JonA wrote: Wed Jul 06, 2022 1:51 pm
mikeylikey wrote: Wed Jul 06, 2022 12:06 pm
quikky wrote: Wed Jul 06, 2022 11:49 am
Allentown wrote: Wed Jul 06, 2022 11:35 am It takes racism or religion to murder strangers.
Are you just saying that or are there stats that show this?
It's self-evident enough that I would argue the burden is on you to prove it wrong.
Well, I just googled and I'm now the expert everybody has been waiting for.

The FBI says there were 22 murders in 2020 classified as hate crimes (people murdered due to race/religion/ethnicity/sexual orientation/etc). https://www.fbi.gov/news/press-releases ... statistics

We are living in crazyville this year, so lets quadruple that up to 100 murders and just assume it's solely based on racism or religion.

The FBI also says that 9.8% of the 13000 murders in 2019 were by strangers https://ucr.fbi.gov/crime-in-the-u.s/20 ... d-homicide. So about 1200 total.

So if we assume every murder because of racism or religion was also by a stranger, we still get less than 10% (more realistically 2% to 5%) of stranger murders are motivated by racism or religion.
The second link you gave said 28 percent were killed by an acquaintance and additional 13 percent killed by a family member. So 41% is someone you know. This seems in keeping with the first part of what Allentown said.

As for racism and religion, you two might be talking past eachother. Racism could play a role in making a murderer more callous in their use of violence against others of a different race without a prosecutor managing to ever convict the racist of a hate crime.

As well, aren't the FBI stats all based on information voluntarily submitted by police departments? With large swaths of the country's LE choosing not to participate? (Not rhetorical, this is my understanding, could be wrong.) If you were a police chief and your city was filled with racist violence its possible you might not expend additional resources to tabulate the violence and report it to the FBI.

This article doesn't get at the murder/hate-crime stats, but it does show that there are issues getting police to share numbers with the FBI, even when compelled to do so by law.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/nation/2 ... orce-data/

I think "religion" and "racism" are broad terms that describe forces which can influence people in subtle ways. Ways that won't be demonstrable in court. If we were drinking beers and I had too many I might blather about how "capitalism" itself is a sort of de-facto religion and how a pervasive, low-level racism can exist within the most woke people that don't think they're racist at all. It's not an easy thing to tease out where these influences end and begin, but for sure they drive some unfortunate behavior.
I agree with most of what you said here. I was trying to make the point that it certainly isn't "self-evident" that it takes religion or racism to murder a stranger. I think it's certainly true for the first statement (that most people are murdered by people they know) and there are plenty of statistics to back that up. Even a casual google search will show that. I think "self-evident" describes that perfectly.

But for religious or racism motiviated murders, if the best we can say to support that is "There isn't much data and we don't think it's accurate and those terms are pretty general anyway", then it's not exactly "self evident", is it? That sounds more like confirmation bias.
For sure. And I don't even disagree with you or Allentown. Was just trying to show this was a difficult subject to tackle and that the lack of precision of these terms made it more even difficult.

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Re: MASS SHOOTING THREAD - Society has reached somekind of inflection point

#157

Post by hector » Tue Jul 12, 2022 8:21 am

JonA wrote: Tue Jul 12, 2022 7:08 am
Renascent wrote: Tue Jul 12, 2022 5:11 am
hector wrote: Tue Jul 12, 2022 5:02 amAs well, aren't the FBI stats all based on information voluntarily submitted by police departments? With large swaths of the country's LE choosing not to participate?
That was my thought as well.

To go one further, at the risk of eliciting groans, I never thought much of the FBI's means of collecting data, nor their intended uses. Nor is there enough transparency there to warrant any sort of trust.
This is probably true. Does that also mean we shouldn't trust their stats that most people are murdered by friends and family? I'm assuming those stats are tabulated the same way as others are.
Possibly. Great point.
I dont understand all the incentives that go into reporting crime stats.
Another possibility, murders of friends and family might be over represented if those murders are easier to solve. Murders of strangers might be more difficult to solve which could lead to them being under represented.

My bias would be to say that, historically, most murders are democide.

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Re: MASS SHOOTING THREAD - Society has reached somekind of inflection point

#158

Post by Renascent » Tue Jul 12, 2022 8:59 am

JonA wrote: Tue Jul 12, 2022 7:08 amDoes that also mean we shouldn't trust their stats that most people are murdered by friends and family? I'm assuming those stats are tabulated the same way as others are.
No, not necessarily.

I think -- for the reasons you outlined in a separate response -- it's easier to identify incidents of intimate violence than violence motivated by racial, religious, or ideological sentiments. There's more empirical evidence to back up accusations of the former.

But there are plenty of average joe types who take offense to some situations being interpreted as "racially motivated" (for example) to the point of even arguing that "microaggressions" aren't a thing outside of the "victim's" imagination, sometimes even in the face of evidence to the contrary. I don't expect anyone in a uniform or acting in some trusted, official capacity to be immune to those same objections.

On a "human" level, I can't say for sure that I wholeheartedly trust a local police officer to care to respond to -- or report -- a sexual assault complaint without bias if their own ideas of consent or appropriate contact differ wildly from the alleged victim(s).

I just don't consider FBI data to be something that comes from unbiased, irrefutable, incorruptible sources, not dissimilar to how the existence of police forces in general is a polarizing concept. If they work for you and your community, great; if they don't, then you're probably not crazy to not be a fan of them.

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Re: MASS SHOOTING THREAD - Society has reached somekind of inflection point

#159

Post by mouse » Mon Mar 27, 2023 4:21 pm

The news outlets that love to point out how often white males commit mass shooting are tripping over their own feet to explain how rare it is that a MtF transgender person woman just shot up a school and I have a headache....

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Re: MASS SHOOTING THREAD - Society has reached somekind of inflection point

#160

Post by SSJBartSimpson » Mon Mar 27, 2023 5:08 pm

mouse wrote: Mon Mar 27, 2023 4:21 pm The news outlets that love to point out how often white males commit mass shooting are tripping over their own feet to explain how rare it is that a MtF transgender person woman just shot up a school and I have a headache....
How are they tripping over the feet? Who is trying to "explain" it? What does that even mean?

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