Impending Global Recession, buckle up yee-haw!

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brkriete
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Re: Impending Global Recession, buckle up yee-haw!

#41

Post by brkriete » Tue Sep 06, 2022 9:22 am

aurelius wrote: Sun Sep 04, 2022 11:32 am *Which is what I'm doing. I'm hiring seniors in college, having them work part-time in the fall and spring semesters. Full-time in the summer then bringing them on full-time. Let's us try them out and train them for cheap. Plus, we get to set expectations early. Hoping to bottom up drive a culture change with our 2-4 year tier that has unrealistic expectations of work and how to advance.
This is the best way to go - I'd rather hire a smart young person without much experience and train them than a mediocre person with ten years.

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Re: Impending Global Recession, buckle up yee-haw!

#42

Post by FredM » Tue Sep 06, 2022 7:39 pm

GlasgowJock wrote: Fri Jun 17, 2022 10:46 am So last Wednesday the US Federal Reserve raised interest rates by 0.75% (the most since 1994) to stem the tsunami of US inflation. The following day the Bank of England raised interest rates by 0.25% to 1.25% with the impact on mortgage standard variable rates starting to be felt by UK home 'owners'.

Rising costs in petrol and diesel, rising costs in electricity and natural gas, inflation hitting 10% and beyond, the public sector running riot with proposed strike action against a weak government etc etc.

A lot of folk in the UK are saying we are returning to the 1970s and will be in a deep recession come the start of the winter.

Thoughts from my learned American friends?
People still don't realize how bad it's going to get. As evidenced by some of the responses here. The pandemic is to blame. Buy American is to blame. The current administration is to blame. The last administration is to blame.

The Reverse Keynesian economics that led us to the 70s has been back since 2006 with a lot smarter and more aggressive a-holes. We also decided to shut down most of the economy for 3 months and shoot the kneecaps off >30% of the economy for a solid 2 years which helped accelerate this bubble burst significantly. And because why not, let's start a war with Russia at the same time. Imma go with hyper inflation. Probably not Soviet Union or Germany levels but it'll be closer to that than the BS "warnings" people in power are currently giving.

As others have said, people in Europe (especially Germany) are literally going to freeze to death this winter. Fortunately Europeans have been oppressed for so long very little will come of that. When it happens here though? Shit's gonna get ugly.

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Re: Impending Global Recession, buckle up yee-haw!

#43

Post by EggMcMuffin » Tue Sep 06, 2022 8:10 pm

I don't know if I'm just bad with money, but my check keeps disappearing in record fucking time. It feels like everything, even basic shit always winds up costing $20 minimium. I remember when I first started working in 2015 making $14/hr I ate way better than I did now, and had enough money to buy a car (which were $2000 in good running condition back then) multiple times only working 3 days a week as a college student.

I'm still on the same level of precarity with 3 days a week of work and school but I make $18.50/hr and being alive currently seems fucking impossible. IDK how some of my coworkers who are full time even fucking survive. Rents are average $2500 and average mortage payments here are easily $10k. This shit is fucking insane, and everything being car dependent means you're constantly getting dicked down by gas prices just to go to work or like, do adult stuff.

Like all the petite bourgeoisie seem to be doing okay but I mean bruh you are going to have Chile tier social unrest in a few years if this keeps up. Everyone outside of tech or the few specific well paid industries in my area seems to be getting bit in the ass. There are unironic shantytowns around Oakland and San Jose, and if you go up north out to Richmond it straight up looks like the last time they fixed or built anything was in 1970...

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Re: Impending Global Recession, buckle up yee-haw!

#44

Post by OrderInChaos » Tue Sep 06, 2022 8:30 pm

EggMcMuffin wrote: Tue Sep 06, 2022 8:10 pm I don't know if I'm just bad with money, but my check keeps disappearing in record fucking time. It feels like everything, even basic shit always winds up costing $20 minimium. I remember when I first started working in 2015 making $14/hr I ate way better than I did now, and had enough money to buy a car (which were $2000 in good running condition back then) multiple times only working 3 days a week as a college student.

I'm still on the same level of precarity with 3 days a week of work and school but I make $18.50/hr and being alive currently seems fucking impossible. IDK how some of my coworkers who are full time even fucking survive. Rents are average $2500 and average mortage payments here are easily $10k. This shit is fucking insane, and everything being car dependent means you're constantly getting dicked down by gas prices just to go to work or like, do adult stuff.

Like all the petite bourgeoisie seem to be doing okay but I mean bruh you are going to have Chile tier social unrest in a few years if this keeps up. Everyone outside of tech or the few specific well paid industries in my area seems to be getting bit in the ass. There are unironic shantytowns around Oakland and San Jose, and if you go up north out to Richmond it straight up looks like the last time they fixed or built anything was in 1970...
Avoid Hayward and Tracy and Antioch and Stockton my mans! Lol.

Aren’t you almost done with school? Did you pick up an internship?

There are a ton of garbage ass FinTechs that would kill to grab a new entry software engineer for 70-80k a year. Not remarkable especially on fintech hours but beats $18.50. With work from home you can live somewhere less costly and pocket more.

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Re: Impending Global Recession, buckle up yee-haw!

#45

Post by SnakePlissken » Wed Sep 07, 2022 5:26 am

EggMcMuffin wrote: Tue Sep 06, 2022 8:10 pm IDK how some of my coworkers who are full time even fucking survive.
I was wondering the same thing too for a while, but the answer is a lot of people in lower incomes have been racking up credit card debt. Rates rising does not help either; I feel like we're only starting to feel the economic pain.
https://www.cnbc.com/select/us-credit-c ... time-high/

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Re: Impending Global Recession, buckle up yee-haw!

#46

Post by GlasgowJock » Thu Sep 08, 2022 4:32 am

For those unaware of the UK Prime Minister's speech on our 'cost of energy crisis' today, she has stated that the 'typical household' will not face a bill for electricity and gas that will exceed ~£2'5k/ annum for the next two years. The UK government will effectively open it's chequebook i.e. borrow to cover the excess. It was anticipated that the cost would rise to ~£5-7k/ annum/ 'typical household' prior to this announcement.

She is also looking to lift the ban on fracking shale gas (we seemingly have 35 trillion tonnes of the stuff under the NW of England, enough to meet demands for the UK for 50 years).

She continues to refuse windfall tax as it would discourage investors to put their capital into further maintenance/ production/ exploration. Seemingly due to the Ukraine/ Russia war they've generated an additional £170 billion in profit.

We'll need to see how she defines the 'typical household' as being taken at face value she has effectively told everyone that once you hit your personal threshold you can continue to be reckless in your use of energy as the UK government will fund it.

This is going to cost us at least £150 billion in borrowing at a conservative estimate because no one can predict the global market in the next 1, 3, 6, 12 or 24 months. We're effectively playing card games with the world gas market.

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Re: Impending Global Recession, buckle up yee-haw!

#47

Post by Philbert » Thu Sep 08, 2022 7:56 pm

EggMcMuffin wrote: Tue Sep 06, 2022 8:10 pm I don't know if I'm just bad with money, but my check keeps disappearing in record fucking time. It feels like everything, even basic shit always winds up costing $20 minimium. I remember when I first started working in 2015 making $14/hr I ate way better than I did now, and had enough money to buy a car (which were $2000 in good running condition back then) multiple times only working 3 days a week as a college student.

I'm still on the same level of precarity with 3 days a week of work and school but I make $18.50/hr and being alive currently seems fucking impossible. IDK how some of my coworkers who are full time even fucking survive. Rents are average $2500 and average mortage payments here are easily $10k. This shit is fucking insane, and everything being car dependent means you're constantly getting dicked down by gas prices just to go to work or like, do adult stuff.

Like all the petite bourgeoisie seem to be doing okay but I mean bruh you are going to have Chile tier social unrest in a few years if this keeps up. Everyone outside of tech or the few specific well paid industries in my area seems to be getting bit in the ass. There are unironic shantytowns around Oakland and San Jose, and if you go up north out to Richmond it straight up looks like the last time they fixed or built anything was in 1970...
My personal opinion is that~50% of the people working in lower paying jobs should just leave places like where you live. Forget about $15 minimum wage, there will be no one available to serve morning coffee for less than $25 per hour if enough people leave. I live in a large one bedroom apartment, rent is 610 a month plus 150-200 for utilities, and the highway is lined with billboards for entry level manufacturing jobs at starting pay of $18/hr That leaves $20k/yr after tax for everything else.

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Re: Impending Global Recession, buckle up yee-haw!

#48

Post by quikky » Thu Sep 08, 2022 8:56 pm

Philbert wrote: Thu Sep 08, 2022 7:56 pm
EggMcMuffin wrote: Tue Sep 06, 2022 8:10 pm I don't know if I'm just bad with money, but my check keeps disappearing in record fucking time. It feels like everything, even basic shit always winds up costing $20 minimium. I remember when I first started working in 2015 making $14/hr I ate way better than I did now, and had enough money to buy a car (which were $2000 in good running condition back then) multiple times only working 3 days a week as a college student.

I'm still on the same level of precarity with 3 days a week of work and school but I make $18.50/hr and being alive currently seems fucking impossible. IDK how some of my coworkers who are full time even fucking survive. Rents are average $2500 and average mortage payments here are easily $10k. This shit is fucking insane, and everything being car dependent means you're constantly getting dicked down by gas prices just to go to work or like, do adult stuff.

Like all the petite bourgeoisie seem to be doing okay but I mean bruh you are going to have Chile tier social unrest in a few years if this keeps up. Everyone outside of tech or the few specific well paid industries in my area seems to be getting bit in the ass. There are unironic shantytowns around Oakland and San Jose, and if you go up north out to Richmond it straight up looks like the last time they fixed or built anything was in 1970...
My personal opinion is that~50% of the people working in lower paying jobs should just leave places like where you live. Forget about $15 minimum wage, there will be no one available to serve morning coffee for less than $25 per hour if enough people leave. I live in a large one bedroom apartment, rent is 610 a month plus 150-200 for utilities, and the highway is lined with billboards for entry level manufacturing jobs at starting pay of $18/hr That leaves $20k/yr after tax for everything else.
Yup. Ideally, do both, move to a cheaper place AND increase income.

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Re: Impending Global Recession, buckle up yee-haw!

#49

Post by EggMcMuffin » Thu Sep 08, 2022 11:33 pm

Philbert wrote: Thu Sep 08, 2022 7:56 pm My personal opinion is that~50% of the people working in lower paying jobs should just leave places like where you live. Forget about $15 minimum wage, there will be no one available to serve morning coffee for less than $25 per hour if enough people leave. I live in a large one bedroom apartment, rent is 610 a month plus 150-200 for utilities, and the highway is lined with billboards for entry level manufacturing jobs at starting pay of $18/hr That leaves $20k/yr after tax for everything else.
It's already happening/happened. Everywhere that isn't tech or finance has perpetual labor shortages lol. Honestly it's weird reflecting on how much this area changed because I realized I really never see any obviously "poor" people around. It's a very different place from when I was a kid.

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Re: Impending Global Recession, buckle up yee-haw!

#50

Post by Culican » Fri Sep 09, 2022 10:30 am

EggMcMuffin wrote: Thu Sep 08, 2022 11:33 pm
Philbert wrote: Thu Sep 08, 2022 7:56 pm My personal opinion is that~50% of the people working in lower paying jobs should just leave places like where you live. Forget about $15 minimum wage, there will be no one available to serve morning coffee for less than $25 per hour if enough people leave. I live in a large one bedroom apartment, rent is 610 a month plus 150-200 for utilities, and the highway is lined with billboards for entry level manufacturing jobs at starting pay of $18/hr That leaves $20k/yr after tax for everything else.
It's already happening/happened. Everywhere that isn't tech or finance has perpetual labor shortages lol. Honestly it's weird reflecting on how much this area changed because I realized I really never see any obviously "poor" people around. It's a very different place from when I was a kid.
These changes started before you were a kid.

I moved there (San Francisco) in 1984 and then to San Mateo County (just south of SF for other readers) in 1987; left in 1997. It was changing even then. The two bedroom apartment in San Bruno cost $1100/mo when I left and I'm sure it was rented out for $1350 or so to the next tenant. I almost bought a one bedroom condo the year before (1996) for $99000. I got talked out of it by people who said that it would be a bad investment. Those condos go for $400K to $500K and more now. They are within walking distance of Youtube headquarters. https://www.coldwellbankerhomes.com/ca/ ... ek-condos/

In the late 1980's my retail job there paid $10/hr, which would be the equivalent of ~$27/hr now and it was hard to make ends meet even then. Within a few years I was paid fairly well for managing one of their stores (they don't pay good these days from my understanding) but I hated the job, quit, and left the Bay Area.

Sometimes you just have to move.

Edit: I was 29yo when I first moved to the Bay Area, just slightly older than you are now.

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Re: Impending Global Recession, buckle up yee-haw!

#51

Post by hector » Tue Sep 13, 2022 7:42 pm

EggMcMuffin wrote: Thu Sep 08, 2022 11:33 pm
Philbert wrote: Thu Sep 08, 2022 7:56 pm My personal opinion is that~50% of the people working in lower paying jobs should just leave places like where you live. Forget about $15 minimum wage, there will be no one available to serve morning coffee for less than $25 per hour if enough people leave. I live in a large one bedroom apartment, rent is 610 a month plus 150-200 for utilities, and the highway is lined with billboards for entry level manufacturing jobs at starting pay of $18/hr That leaves $20k/yr after tax for everything else.
It's already happening/happened. Everywhere that isn't tech or finance has perpetual labor shortages lol. Honestly it's weird reflecting on how much this area changed because I realized I really never see any obviously "poor" people around. It's a very different place from when I was a kid.
Not just tech or finance.
I'm driving through rural area on east coast for work right now. Almost every Wawa and Sheets I pass is hiring, starting at $15/hour (sometimes more) with benefits.

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Re: Impending Global Recession, buckle up yee-haw!

#52

Post by hsilman » Wed Sep 14, 2022 6:30 am

Philbert wrote: Thu Sep 08, 2022 7:56 pm I live in a large one bedroom apartment, rent is 610 a month plus 150-200 for utilities, and the highway is lined with billboards for entry level manufacturing jobs at starting pay of $18/hr That leaves $20k/yr after tax for everything else.
It's actually hard to find where places like this are. I don't want you to dox yourself or anything, but I'm curious where you live.

In upstate NY where I'm from, rent is +/- 1000/month, but jobs are still paying $13-14/hr. Don't know how anyone affords shit, that leaves you with under $1000/month for everything else. Groceries and Gas are now just as or close to as expensive as it is for me in NYC. We're looking at moving to North Carolina next year, and it's the same story there. Rents have gone up a ton in the past few years along with everything else, but wages are still stagnant(even lower than NY!)

And forget about owning a home.

It's difficult to find locations that have the balance of some good paying jobs but still cheap enough to afford to live.

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Re: Impending Global Recession, buckle up yee-haw!

#53

Post by dw » Wed Sep 14, 2022 7:16 am

I would think that if we were all "rational" in the economics sense there would be a huge population shift from big cities to rural areas, enough to crash the housing markets of the former. But people care about things other than their purchasing power.

As far as lifestyle goes the country gets more and more homogeneous every day, between Internet related services and big box stores and downtown gentrification. I travel a lot and basically can do the same things everywhere.

Obviously for the bona fide culture vulture it's different, but I'm a heathen.

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Re: Impending Global Recession, buckle up yee-haw!

#54

Post by quikky » Wed Sep 14, 2022 9:15 am

dw wrote: Wed Sep 14, 2022 7:16 am I would think that if we were all "rational" in the economics sense there would be a huge population shift from big cities to rural areas, enough to crash the housing markets of the former. But people care about things other than their purchasing power.
Well, it's not quite so simple. Economic sense is about income vs. expenses. Cities usually offer better income, while rural areas usually offer lower expenses. For a lot of people the best solution is to find a place that offers fairly good opportunities for their profession while keeping costs modest.

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Re: Impending Global Recession, buckle up yee-haw!

#55

Post by aurelius » Wed Sep 14, 2022 9:28 am

quikky wrote: Wed Sep 14, 2022 9:15 amWell, it's not quite so simple. Economic sense is about income vs. expenses. Cities usually offer better income, while rural areas usually offer lower expenses. For a lot of people the best solution is to find a place that offers fairly good opportunities for their profession while keeping costs modest.
This ^. We also need to consider opportunity for increased income over a longer time frame. For most industries, there is not the opportunity for career advancement (resulting in increased income) in lower population areas.

My example: I could move now to a lower cost area and find a job/have remote work in the $100k range. My 20-year gross income would be $2 million in 2022 dollars.

Or I could stay in the Denver Metro area. Continue to advance in my current company in a 'hot' market and have a 20-year gross income of $5-6 million in 2022 dollars.

I am staying in the Denver Metro area. Yes, I accept a lower standard of living (I live in an apartment) as I choose to live modestly (I make the max donation to my 401k). It is a tradeoff. I am choosing the potential for significantly greater long-term income.

*Expenses is more complex analysis. Housing prices are significantly more in densely populated area but there is a return on investment that will be realized when one leaves that area. Historically that is not true for lower population areas where real estate prices are more stable. Example: I will buy a house in Denver for $500k. Sale it for $700k-$1 million in 20 years and use the profit to buy my retirement home for $300-$400k in a lower cost of living area.

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Re: Impending Global Recession, buckle up yee-haw!

#56

Post by Philbert » Wed Sep 14, 2022 7:04 pm

hsilman wrote: Wed Sep 14, 2022 6:30 am
Philbert wrote: Thu Sep 08, 2022 7:56 pm I live in a large one bedroom apartment, rent is 610 a month plus 150-200 for utilities, and the highway is lined with billboards for entry level manufacturing jobs at starting pay of $18/hr That leaves $20k/yr after tax for everything else.
It's actually hard to find where places like this are. I don't want you to dox yourself or anything, but I'm curious where you live.

In upstate NY where I'm from, rent is +/- 1000/month, but jobs are still paying $13-14/hr. Don't know how anyone affords shit, that leaves you with under $1000/month for everything else. Groceries and Gas are now just as or close to as expensive as it is for me in NYC. We're looking at moving to North Carolina next year, and it's the same story there. Rents have gone up a ton in the past few years along with everything else, but wages are still stagnant(even lower than NY!)

And forget about owning a home.

It's difficult to find locations that have the balance of some good paying jobs but still cheap enough to afford to live.
I am also from Upstate NY, mostly Rochester and Syracuse. I live in the upper Midwest, excluding Illinois. Illinois, like upstate NY, is a political suburb of a large city which impairs its economic function for working class people. When I moved here from "Cuse I got a nicer apartment in a better neighborhood for significantly less money. The Carolinas were better than NY in terms of living costs vs wages, until so many people from the northeast moved there.

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Re: Impending Global Recession, buckle up yee-haw!

#57

Post by Philbert » Wed Sep 14, 2022 7:09 pm

dw wrote: Wed Sep 14, 2022 7:16 am I would think that if we were all "rational" in the economics sense there would be a huge population shift from big cities to rural areas, enough to crash the housing markets of the former. But people care about things other than their purchasing power.

As far as lifestyle goes the country gets more and more homogeneous every day, between Internet related services and big box stores and downtown gentrification. I travel a lot and basically can do the same things everywhere.

Obviously for the bona fide culture vulture it's different, but I'm a heathen.
Not all, but many. As Aurelius and others note, for highly paid professionals there are good reasons to stay in high priced cities. Retirees and the people who work low paying dead end jobs, not so much.

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Re: Impending Global Recession, buckle up yee-haw!

#58

Post by hsilman » Thu Sep 15, 2022 6:16 am

Philbert wrote: Wed Sep 14, 2022 7:04 pm I am also from Upstate NY, mostly Rochester and Syracuse. I live in the upper Midwest, excluding Illinois. Illinois, like upstate NY, is a political suburb of a large city which impairs its economic function for working class people. When I moved here from "Cuse I got a nicer apartment in a better neighborhood for significantly less money. The Carolinas were better than NY in terms of living costs vs wages, until so many people from the northeast moved there.
Yeah, makes sense. The carolinas are still (mostly) cheaper than the northeast, with exceptions like Raleigh/Durham, Charlotte and Charleston. Those are still cheaper-ish, but way closer now post-Covid. It's tough looking at houses and seeing they sold 2 years ago for 175k and they're now asking 300k with no differences. Still, can maybe buy a studio in Queens for that kind of money here. I'm hoping as more companies force RTO(mine has gone completely remote-first, hiring people from all over the country so no way they do it) the market gets a little cooler. Already noticing a trend in the past month.

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Re: Impending Global Recession, buckle up yee-haw!

#59

Post by hector » Fri Sep 16, 2022 6:52 pm

dw wrote: Wed Sep 14, 2022 7:16 am I would think that if we were all "rational" in the economics sense there would be a huge population shift from big cities to rural areas, enough to crash the housing markets of the former. But people care about things other than their purchasing power.

As far as lifestyle goes the country gets more and more homogeneous every day, between Internet related services and big box stores and downtown gentrification. I travel a lot and basically can do the same things everywhere.

Obviously for the bona fide culture vulture it's different, but I'm a heathen.
Has this not happened?
Hasn't there been a big shift from urban to rural, with many rich people leaving cities and bidding up prices on rural and suburban properties?

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Re: Impending Global Recession, buckle up yee-haw!

#60

Post by GlasgowJock » Wed Sep 28, 2022 5:59 am

Well last Friday the UK gov announced their mini budget, which the financial markets responded poorly to.

Bank of England today has had to purchase the latest UK gov issued gilts to continue financing quantative easing that we've become hooked on since 2008. As such expect to see BoE raise interest rates *significantly* in the near future.

The pound Sterling continues to fall, probably hit parity against a strong USD pretty soon and continue to weaken.

Still no crisis though as there's no reduced footfall in Costa Coffee, McDonald's etc.

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