Hamas Attack on Israel - 7th Oct 2023

[mikeylikey]

Israel's stated purpose is to eliminate Hamas... Unless you know of some other way Israel can achieve their objective.

Besides letting the citizens of Gaza have basic human, civil and economic rights... obvs.

[mikeylikey]

RE: this truce. I'm going out on a limb and saying I think major hostilities are probably over, for at least a couple years.

You can reasonably argue that the actions of Israel from 10/8 thru last week represent more or less a single campaign which is a direct response to the 10/7 attacks. While there is a lot to criticize regarding tactics and methods, it's hard to argue that AN response wasn't justified.

Now that the shooting has stopped, should Israel be the first to resume hostilities it will be very easy for critics to characterize the new hostilities as an unprovoked offensive act. It will be exceedingly difficult for Israel to say "welp, now that everyone has caught their breath, we're going to start bombing again, k?" Especially the longer the truce holds. Israel knows this, and Hamas knows this too, which is why I believe A) This truce probably ends up being fairly long-lived, and B) Israel must have already accomplished most of what it felt it needed to or could do with military force, else they would not have agreed to the cease fire.

More conspiratorially, it is not necessarily in the interest of the Netanyahu government to actually wipe out Hamas. Less conspiratorially, Israel may not want to fully burn the bridges it had been building with Arab states in recent years.

I suspect the current state on the ground will more or less become the new status quo starting about now. Which, if you look at the map, the results 5-10 years from now are going to be pretty predictable.

[aurelius]

Hamas does have agency, but the way they are using civilians as "human shields" is inherently a passive action. They are baiting Israel into committing war crimes and ruining Israel's public image in the international community. Israel could just not take the bait, but they are in 9/11 mode.

Israel's stated goal is to eliminate Hamas, even if it takes a genocide. They've occupied Gaza for almost two decades and now they decide it's the time to indiscriminately bomb to tunnel network.

Bollocks to this nonsense.
--Genocide (the implication is the elimination of the Gazan population)? 10,000-15,000 out of 2,000,000 Gazans have been killed as collateral damage in one of the highest per capita density urban areas on the planet. We can have all kinds of discussion regarding proportionality and ethics but to pretend this is a pogrom to wipe out the Gazans is a farce.
--Hand waiving Hamas tactics as 'passive' is just so much bullshit.
--Israel decided to attack the Gaza strip all of a sudden? Israel turned over internal control to Gazans 20 years ago. Hamas seized control. Israel is now responding to a targeted attack by Hamas on their civilian population on October 7th. Why didn't Israel attack the preceding 20 years? Because Hamas didn't attack them!

These narratives and arguments running wild on social media are fraught with bias, taking agency away from Hamas, and simply dishonest.

Sorry, you lost me here. You are suggesting that Israel's leadership should be tried in war crimes court, just like the Nazis?

Yes.

Should US leadership that authorized the carpet bombings, fire bombings, and nuclear bombings of cities in WW2 be trialed for war crimes? They did have a military objective: lower enemy morale.

Besides letting the citizens of Gaza have basic human, civil and economic rights... obvs.

Do you really believe Hamas would be satisfied with that?

I get time machine solution. Go back 50 years and implement an actual plan that gives the displaced Palestinians an independent state and future. But do you really believe the if Israel would have responded to the October 7th attacks with capitulation that Hamas would just pack up shop and quit?

[aurelius]

RE: this truce. I'm going out on a limb and saying I think major hostilities are probably over, for at least a couple years.

Reasonable take. I think Hamas has to turn over all of the hostages for this to stick.

Israel was able to kill a lot of Hamas command. Israel can go back to its people and claim justice or some such.
https://www.nytimes.com/2023/11/26/worl ... illed.html
https://www.nytimes.com/live/2023/10/22 ... airstrikes

[aurelius]

I think these are informative articles that discusses the concept of proportionality and its application to international humanitarian law. IMO they don't try to convince the reader of a 'correct' position but are trying to inform the reader how these military decisions are made and what international humanitarian law says about them.

https://www.cnn.com/2023/11/16/middleea ... index.html
https://www.npr.org/2023/11/11/12123263 ... war-crimes

[JonA]

Hamas does have agency, but the way they are using civilians as "human shields" is inherently a passive action.

Murdering 1400 civilians and taking hundreds of hostages is not being passive.

Launching over 5000 rockets from behind human shields is not passive.

[mikeylikey]

Do you really believe Hamas would be satisfied with that?

The goal is not to satsify Hamas. The goal is for Hamas not to exist, as you said. Can't be unsatisfied if you don't exist.

I think the best way for Hamas not to exist is to give Palestinians human, civil and economic rights.

This will not make Hamas disappear overnight but neither will bombing hospitals tunnel entrances.

[JonA]

I think the best way for Hamas not to exist is to give Palestinians human, civil and economic rights.

You seem to be implying that it is Israel that is denying them this, rather than Hamas and the PA, which have been governing them for 15+ years.

For all the reasons you cited earlier in this thread, it's not in Hamas and the PAs best interest to allow this to happen and they've fought every measure Israel and the West have taken to make it happen.

[aurelius]

I think the best way for Hamas not to exist is to give Palestinians human, civil and economic rights.

Agreed.

Devil's advocate: Hamas leadership is decimated and operational capacity significantly reduced for the next 5+ years. Which actually puts Israel in a better position to achieve a political victory (what you are describing). Israel now essentially occupies north Gaza. It has the opportunity to implement a Marshall Plan of its own in Northern Gaza. Leading to an independent Northern Gaza. This is a 20+ year plan (the Marshall Plan wasn't an overnight success). But Israel is in a better position to implement this today than before October 7th.

Now is that Israel's plan? I don't know. It would require a level of political wherewithal and empathy towards Gazans Israel has yet to demonstrate in this decades long conflict.

[mikeylikey]

I think the best way for Hamas not to exist is to give Palestinians human, civil and economic rights.

You seem to be implying that it is Israel that is denying them this,

Not only would I imply this, I would readily state it as an affirmative proposition.

rather than Hamas and the PA, which have been governing them for 15+ years.

Hamas is at best responsible for some of the internal administrative functions in Gaza.

Israel controls things like movement across the border, access to commerce, access to food, water, fuel energy... as I said, basic human, civil, and economic rights.

[mikeylikey]

I think the best way for Hamas not to exist is to give Palestinians human, civil and economic rights.

Agreed.

Devil's advocate: Hamas leadership is decimated and operational capacity significantly reduced for the next 5+ years. Which actually puts Israel in a better position to achieve a political victory (what you are describing). Israel now essentially occupies north Gaza. It has the opportunity to implement a Marshall Plan of its own in Northern Gaza. Leading to an independent Northern Gaza. This is a 20+ year plan (the Marshall Plan wasn't an overnight success). But Israel is in a better position to implement this today than before October 7th.

Now is that Israel's plan? I don't know. It would require a level of political wherewithal and empathy towards Gazans Israel has yet to demonstrate in this decades long conflict.

Aspects of this are no doubt part of how many Israeli decision makers believe this is going to go.

[aurelius]

Hamas is at best responsible for some of the internal administrative functions in Gaza.

Hamas rules within the Gaza strip. Yes, Israel controls the border and (some would say illegally) limits what crosses that border. Yet somehow Hamas has gotten thousands of rockets, firearms, and such through. Hamas has ruled the Gaza strip through terror, extortion, and violence for 17 years.

Hamas itself, a 30,000 person organization, is relatively wealthy while the majority of the Gazans live in poverty:
https://www.nbcnews.com/news/world/gaza ... rcna121099

An overview of the billions in aid given by the international community:
https://apnews.com/article/business-mid ... 9f4fae6a90

Under Hamas rule the Gaza strip has deteriorated and the plight of the Gazans worsened. To make your point from the other direction, imagine if Hamas used their resources on building a viable economy, infrastructure, civil services, and schools when they took over in 2007. Where would the Gaza strip be today?

[mikeylikey]

Hamas is at best responsible for some of the internal administrative functions in Gaza.

Hamas rules within the Gaza strip. Yes, Israel controls the border and (some would say illegally) limits what crosses that border. Yet somehow Hamas has gotten thousands of rockets, firearms, and such through. Hamas has ruled the Gaza strip through terror, extortion, and violence for 17 years.

Hamas itself, a 30,000 person organization, is relatively wealthy while the majority of the Gazans live in poverty:
https://www.nbcnews.com/news/world/gaza ... rcna121099

An overview of the billions in aid given by the international community:
https://apnews.com/article/business-mid ... 9f4fae6a90

Under Hamas rule the Gaza strip has deteriorated and the plight of the Gazans worsened. To make your point from the other direction, imagine if Hamas their resources had focused on building a viable economy, infrastructure, civil services, and schools when they took over in 2007. Where would the Gaza strip be today?

Saying Hamas 'governs' Gaza is like saying the Crips 'govern' San Quentin prison. It touches a part of the truth but it is far from the full story.

It is an interesting thought experiment to imagine where Gaza might be today with "Ideal" leadership. But like with going back in a time machine and killing baby Hitler, I think puts too much emphasis on the highly visible guys at the top.

[aurelius]

Saying Hamas 'governs' Gaza is like saying the Crips 'govern' San Quentin prison. It touches a part of the truth but it is far from the full story.

This simply isn't true. Israel pulled out of the Gaza strip in 2006. It does not have a presence within the Gaza Strip. I agree that Israel controls Gaza's borders and limits the mobility of Gazans. But prior to this military action there was not an Israeli presence within the Gaza strip. Hamas had complete control of all resources, civil services, the economy, and on and on...Hamas rules within the Gaza strip. One of the articles I posted describes how Hamas levies taxes and fees to generate a $450 million per year income from the Gaza strip. I don't know how Hamas accomplishes the October 7th attack if Israel is in control of the Gaza strip. You describe it as a prison...well whose fault is that? Certainly Israel has some liability but Hamas has been in control for 17 years, been given billions in aid, what has it done to improve the Gaza strip?

Maybe we are quibbling but I feel like you are seriously downplaying the Hamas rule in the Gaza strip. They aren't a gang. Hamas is an elected government that came into power in 2007.

[mikeylikey]

I agree that Israel controls Gaza's borders and limits the mobility of Gazans.

You say that like it's a minor thing... imagine if Canada controlled the coming and going of Americans.

Maybe we are quibbling but I feel like you are seriously downplaying the Hamas rule in the Gaza strip. They aren't a gang. Hamas is an elected government that came into power in 2007.

I don't mean to downplay the role of Hamas in Gaza, it is substantial at least with respect to those aspects of life there where they have power. Again, Israel controls many aspects which are as, or more, fundamental to basic human rights and dignity of the people.

I do claim that Hamas is more like a Gang than a government. They 'won' a plurality in one election which was held before half the current residents were born. Conveniently there have been no follow-on votes held. Their rule is not legitimate in any way that you or I would accept of a group purporting to be our government. And there are plenty of examples of cases where Mafias and Cartels have enjoyed more popular support than the legitimate governments in their territories.

Anyway, Israels policies are De Facto the USA's policies so I am about 11 times more concerned with those polices than I am with what Hamas does.

[ChasingCurls69]

Hamas does have agency, but the way they are using civilians as "human shields" is inherently a passive action. They are baiting Israel into committing war crimes and ruining Israel's public image in the international community. Israel could just not take the bait, but they are in 9/11 mode.

Israel's stated goal is to eliminate Hamas, even if it takes a genocide. They've occupied Gaza for almost two decades and now they decide it's the time to indiscriminately bomb to tunnel network.

Bollocks to this nonsense.
--Genocide (the implication is the elimination of the Gazan population)? 10,000-15,000 out of 2,000,000 Gazans have been killed as collateral damage in one of the highest per capita density urban areas on the planet. We can have all kinds of discussion regarding proportionality and ethics but to pretend this is a pogrom to wipe out the Gazans is a farce.
--Hand waiving Hamas tactics as 'passive' is just so much bullshit.
--Israel decided to attack the Gaza strip all of a sudden? Israel turned over internal control to Gazans 20 years ago. Hamas seized control. Israel is now responding to a targeted attack by Hamas on their civilian population on October 7th. Why didn't Israel attack the preceding 20 years? Because Hamas didn't attack them!

These narratives and arguments running wild on social media are fraught with bias, taking agency away from Hamas, and simply dishonest.

10-15k people, over half of whom are women and children, in the most densely populated location on earth with an average age of 19 years old. Killing .5-75% of the total population in less than 2 months is still fucking insane on Israel's part. ~1.7 million are displaced on top of that

Israel "handed over" control of Gaza to Hamas and yet still controls their borders (with Egypt) including along the sea, controls their access to fuel, water, and electricity (which they cut off to fuck with the ones they haven't outright bombed yet, and didn't reinstate out of the kindness of their hearts). Israel is toeing the line as much as they can, and by the actual definitions of genocide that were brought up earlier in this thread, their actions in Gaza 100% qualify.

Hamas' agency is only limited insofar as they have a weird psuedo-government in a psuedo-nation that has minimal outside support.

[mikeylikey]

10-15k people, over half of whom are women and children, in the most densely populated location on earth with an average age of 19 years old. Killing .5-75% of the total population in less than 2 months is still fucking insane on Israel's part. ~1.7 million are displaced on top of that

I heard on a podcast the other day that, controlling for population size, the 10/7 attacks would be comparable to if 9/11 had killed 30,000 Americans. And the Israeli attacks on Gaza, if they happened in America, would be like ~ 200,000 American children being killed.

[ChasingCurls69]

Hamas does have agency, but the way they are using civilians as "human shields" is inherently a passive action.

Murdering 1400 civilians and taking hundreds of hostages is not being passive.

Launching over 5000 rockets from behind human shields is not passive.

That sentence specifically refers to the "human shield" thing. It does not refer to the attacks on Israel directly, which were not passive and were heinous. Killing 15k civilians doesn't bring the 1200 people back or make Israel safer; going back 20 years and not supporting Hamas over secular parties because the secular parties were less favourable to the Israeli right wing might've been a good start.

Israel is essentially doing a post 9/11 speedrun.

[ChasingCurls69]

10-15k people, over half of whom are women and children, in the most densely populated location on earth with an average age of 19 years old. Killing .5-75% of the total population in less than 2 months is still fucking insane on Israel's part. ~1.7 million are displaced on top of that

I heard on a podcast the other day that, controlling for population size, the 10/7 attacks would be comparable to if 9/11 had killed 30,000 Americans. And the Israeli attacks on Gaza, if they happened in America, would be like ~ 200,000 American children being killed.

Jfc, yeah scaling it to the US population makes both attacks sound even more egregious. Things get weird with large numbers, especially when those large numbers are people getting killed.

200k American children and Canada controls our borders

[mikeylikey]

Jfc, yeah scaling it to the US population makes both attacks sound even more egregious. Things get weird with large numbers, especially when those large numbers are people getting killed.

Yes, large numbers are hard to compare intuitively. A better way to put it is, basically everyone would be personally affected or else know people who were.